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Informist, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026

By Anand JC

MUMBAI – Hero MotoCorp Ltd.'s revenue from operations for the June quarter is likely to grow at the fastest rate year-on-year in the last 16 quarters as wholesale sales of its two-wheelers jumped 23% and a mid-to-high-single-digit growth in the average selling price of its vehicles, according to brokerage estimates. Yet the company's profit is forecast to grow at the slowest rate in the last four quarters, despite a low base.

The company is expected to report a net profit of INR 12.53 billion for the June quarter, up 11% on year but down almost 11% on quarter, according to the average of 15 estimates. Projections for the company's bottom line are in a narrow range, with the highest being INR 13.32 billion by Axis Securities Ltd. and the lowest INR 11.98 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

Hero MotoCorp's revenue from operations for the June quarter is expected to be INR 124.69 billion, up 30% on year and down 2.5% sequentially, according to the average of estimates. The highest expectation for the automaker's top line is INR 127.71 billion by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 121.05 billion by Axis Securities.

The two-wheeler maker's June quarter earnings are expected to benefit from a low base. In the year-ago quarter, its profit had barely grown on year to INR 11.26 billion while its revenue contracted almost 6% to INR 95.79 billion. Additionally, its despatches in the June quarter also reflected the poor showing in the year-ago quarter.

Hero MotoCorp sold 1.68 million two-wheelers in the June quarter, up nearly 23% on year but down 2.2% on quarter. Wholesale sales of the company had contracted 11% in the year-ago quarter but had grown over 24% in the March quarter. Hero MotoCorp's domestic despatches grew 21% on year to 1.57 million units, but its exports grew a staggering 63% to 105,206 units.

Apart from a low base, Hero MotoCorp's revenue for the June quarter is forecast to gain from a mid-to-high-single-digit increase in the average selling price of its two-wheelers. The average realisation from sales of two-wheelers for the company is expected to be INR 73,572, up 5% on year, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said. Analysts noted the company's electric two-wheeler market share is increasing in line with the industry.

Hero MotoCorp is India's largest two-wheeler maker with a significant presence in the entry-level market. The company's domestic two-wheeler market share stood at around 28% in the June quarter, slightly higher than in the year-ago quarter.

"Entry-level motorcycle industry has seen sustained demand with HMCL (Hero MotoCorp) gaining market share, although it remains vulnerable to price increases from higher commodity prices and lower rural cashflows due to expected below-normal monsoon," Prabhudas Lilladher said. "However, the company has not shown similar strength in the more resilient premium portfolio," it said.

Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the quarter ended June are forecast to grow nearly 18% on year and fall almost 13% on quarter to INR 16.24 billion, according to the average of 13 estimates. The highest estimate for Hero MotoCorp's EBITDA is INR 16.84 billion by Axis Securities and the lowest is INR 15.81 billion by Nomura Equity Research.

The company's EBITDA margin for the June quarter is expected to contract sequentially because higher commodity costs will outweigh the benefits of operating leverage, improved product portfolio, and cost optimisation, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said. The company's EBITDA margin may decline 59-170 basis points sequentially and 51-146 bps on year. It had reported an EBITDA margin of 14.4% in the year-ago quarter and 14.5% in the March quarter.

Hero MotoCorp will announce its June-quarter results on Thursday. At 0938 IST, shares of the company traded 0.2% lower at INR 5,679.50 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is up roughly 10 % since the company disclosed its March quarter results on May 5. 

Of the 13 research reports on Hero MotoCorp available with Informist, 12 have a "buy" or equivalent recommendation on the stock and one has a "hold" call. The average target price for the "buy" recommendations is INR 6,143, around 10% higher than the current market price.

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Hero MotoCorp from 15 brokerages in descending order of the net profit estimate:

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Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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