Households' one-year-ahead inflation expectations rise in July - RBI survey
This story was originally published at 21:12 IST on 5 August 2026
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NEW DELHI – Indian households' one-year-ahead expectations edged up in July amid higher price pressures, according to the Reserve Bank of India's inflation expectations survey. However, their perception of current inflation remained unchanged in July, while expectations for the next three months eased on hopes of price moderation, according to the survey released Wednesday.
The median perception of current inflation among households remained unchanged at 7.8% in July. Households' inflation expectations for the next three months eased by 10 basis points to 9.2%, while the inflation expectations for the year ahead rose by 10 bps to 9.4%, the RBI said.
"In the short-term, the proportion of respondents anticipating a rise in general prices and inflation has declined, while it has increased for the one-year-ahead horizon," the RBI said.
Households' inflation expectations typically remain well above the actual CPI inflation rate.
The survey is based on 5,905 responses collected across 19 major cities during Jul. 11–20.
India's CPI inflation rose to an 18-month high of 4.38% in June. The RBI Wednesday lowered its inflation forecast for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) by 10 bps to 5.0%.
In another forward-looking survey, the RBI said consumer confidence in urban areas deteriorated in July, with the Current Situation Index easing to 88.3 in July from 90.7 in May. Urban consumer confidence for the year ahead also moderated, though it remained in optimistic territory, the RBI said.
"Consumers remain optimistic on income and spending outlook amidst some concerns on the economic situation and employment in this survey round," the central bank said.
Consumer confidence also eased in rural areas in July, the RBI said. The Current Situation Index moderated to 91.7 in July from 95.2 in May. The one-year-ahead outlook worsened, but sentiment remained in optimistic territory. End
Reported by Shweta
Edited by Saji George Titus
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