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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026

 

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--RBI Malhotra: See possibility GDP growth for FY27 may be 7%
--RBI Malhotra: India agri sector demonstrated great resilience
--RBI Gupta: Overall econ resilient, particularly agri, rural econ 
--RBI Gupta: Agri sector resilient, rain vagaries matter less than in past
--RBI Gupta: Rainfall deficiency matter less than in the past

 

NEW DELHI – India's GDP growth for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) could be 7% or even above, surpassing the Monetary Policy Committee's latest projection of 6.7%, as suggested in the "fan chart" projections, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Wednesday. "The 6.7% growth...outlook that we have given is an estimate and we have also mentioned that risk are evenly balanced on both sides," Malhotra said during the post monetary policy press conference.

 

The central bank has worked on a "fan chart" to give relative probability distribution. "If you look at the fan chart, it will suggest that there is a possibility that the growth may be 7% or more," Malhotra said while responding to a question if he saw an overall GDP growth of over 7% in FY27 considering the data has been better than the forecast. The RBI uses graphical tool called fan chart in its monetary policy reports to show inflation and GDP projections along with the degree of uncertainty and risk surrounding them.

 

The governor, post June meeting, had said the Monetary Policy Committee will remain data-dependent and closely monitor the developments, including supply side pressures getting embedded in the general price level and inflation expectations. Earlier, the Monetary Policy Committee had estimated FY27 GDP growth at 6.9% in its April meeting and had cut its growth projection by 30 basis points to 6.6% in the June meeting.

 

Further, Malhotra said Indian economy has demonstrated great resilience amid the ongoing global situation and weather conditions. "It is still evolving. But it has been very resilient," he said. Adding to this, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said, "The overall economy has become very resilient...resilience extends to different sectors, particularly the agricultural sector and the rural economy."

 

The resilience has played out in multiple way as seen in the data for the last 15 years, Gupta said. The government measures have been helpful for the agriculture and the allied sectors. Both the sectors are complimentary to each other. "The share of area that is irrigated now is much larger and it is a secular increase," Gupta said.

 

This implies that "though the rainfall deficiency and vagaries matter, they matter less than they used to in the past," Gupta said. Even the agricultural sector inputs being used, crop variety and seed varities have improved. Malhotra said, "We have seen that the agricultural groups themselves have used their own activities to generate income. And evolution has improved."  End

 

Reported by Shweta

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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