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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026

By Rajesh Gajra

MUMBAI – Hindalco Industries Ltd.'s earnings for the June quarter are expected to have been supported by its India operations where higher aluminium and copper prices and a jump in net sales realisations are seen to have boosted the on-year growth in operating profit and the bottom line. The top-line and the bottom-line growth of the company's major subsidiary in the US, Novelis Inc., is seen to be weak due to the Oswego plant being shut down following an earlier fire incident. It contributes to over half of Hindalco's consolidated revenue and more than one-third of its operating profit.

The company is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 58.17 billion for the June quarter according to an average of estimates from 13 brokerages. Excluding an outlier net profit estimate of INR 35.44 billion from Axis Securities Ltd., the average net profit estimate is INR 60.07 billion, up 50% on year and down 11% on quarter. Excluding Axis', the highest estimate of net profit among the brokerages is INR 75.03 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest is INR 49.90 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

The company's consolidated revenue from operations for the quarter is expected to be INR 889.70 billion, according to an average of estimates from 13 brokerages. Excluding an outlier estimate of revenue of INR 1.13 trillion from Kotak Securities, the average is INR 870.02 billion, up 35% on year and 11% on quarter. The highest estimate of revenue, excluding that of Kotak's, is INR 996.33 billion from Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 774.70 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

A 43% on-year surge in Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange to $3,517 per tonne for the June quarter from $2,463 per tonne is seen as the predominant factor driving the top-line and operating profit performance. The fullest benefit of this is expected to have flowed into the company's India operations. "Strong LME (prices) and robust India operations are expected to support overall earnings," brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial said in a report.

Aluminium prices surged during the June quarter on account of disruptions caused by the war in West Asia, with that region accounting for "9% of global supply," as per Axis. Apart from high aluminium prices, the "resilient profitability" of Hindalco's India operations would likely have absorbed the impact of "higher input costs and hedging losses," according to brokerage YES Securities (India) Ltd.

"Hindalco's India business should benefit from higher Aluminum realisations, partly offset by hedge losses, while the Copper business is likely to benefit from higher external Sulphuric Acid sales despite continued pressure from negative TcRCs (copper concentrate treatment and refining charges)," brokerage Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. said in a report.

On June quarter volumes, Equirus expects Hindalco's standalone aluminium volume to be 1.5% higher from the year-ago quarter, and copper cathodes volume to be slightly up 0.8% on year. The brokerage expects shipments of Novelis to have declined 4% on year.

The realisations from the company's upstream operations in aluminium for the June quarter are seen expanding by Ambit. The earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation are seen at INR 109.53 billion, as per an average of estimates by 11 brokerages. Kotak Securities expects the Hindalco's India EBITDA to rise 42% on year, on the back of a 47% on-year rise in aluminium segment EBITDA, and higher commodity prices resulting in a 14% increase in copper segment EBITDA.

On Hindalco's US operations through Novelis, Motilal Oswal expects Novelis' earnings to remain muted due to the Oswego fire-related shutdown. The hot mill factory in Oswego was down for over two-thirds of the June quarter. Novelis restarted operations in the hot mill on Jun. 10. The company had said on Jun. 10 that it was ramping up supply to its customers.

However, strong packaging demand in cans and other segments, continued mitigation measures on tariff impact, and Oswego plant restart are expected to fetch Novelis a 17% on-year jump in EBITDA per tonne for the June quarter.

Novelis operations are vital to Hindalco's consolidated earnings performance. As per Hindalco's annual report for the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), Novelis' share in consolidated revenue, adjusted for inter-segment revenue and different accounting policies adjustments, was 58% for the year, and its share in adjusted EBITDA was 39%.

Hindalco will detail its June quarter earnings Friday, while its US subsidiary Novelis will announce its earnings Wednesday. Investors will watch for management's comments on price and demand outlook for the company's domestic aluminium and copper segments, and Novelis' prospects after the restart of the fire-hit Oswego factory.

Tuesday, shares of Hindalco ended at INR 1,020, up 2.6% from Monday. The shares are down nearly 8% from the date the March quarter earnings were announced. Of 12 brokerage reports available with Informist, five have a "buy" call on the stock at an average target price of INR 1,247, while five have a "hold" recommendation, and two have a "sell" call.

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates for Hindalco Industries from 13 brokerages in descending order of estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

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Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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