India Stocks Outlook
Closing auction clarity, RBI MPC outcome in focus
This story was originally published at 20:08 IST on 4 August 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026
By Gopika Balasubramanium
MUMBAI – While market sentiment remains broadly positive, supported by strong corporate earnings, easing crude oil prices and the stalemate between the US and Iran, investors will focus on gaining greater clarity on price adjustments during the closing auction. The gap between the index level at the end of continuous trading and the final closing price determined through the auction has been significant. Market participants are likely to wait for a few more trading sessions before drawing conclusions about the new auction-based closing price mechanism.
Tuesday, the Nifty 50 settled at 24614.90 points, down 159.40 points or 0.6%. This was about 151 points higher than the level of 24463.45 points that the index had reached when the continuous trading session ended at 1515 IST. The BSE Sensex settled at 78428.95 points, down 210.08 points or 0.3%. This was over 100 points higher than the 1515 IST level of 78324.56 points.
The 50-stock ended 0.6% lower while the BSE Sensex ended 0.3% lower. The difference in closing levels could be the result of separate order books for both exchanges for the closing auction sessions, which means the prices of individual stocks would also be different. "As the index is calculated based on the prices determined for individual stocks, the index values can also be different," NSE had said in its press release.
"... reflecting that underlying momentum continues to favour the bulls despite short-term consolidation," Dhupesh Dhameja, technical and derivatives analyst at SAMCO Securities, said. "Technically, 24500–24450 (points) remains the immediate support zone, followed by 24300, while 24700 is the first resistance...," he added.
Analysts also said the sharp movement in the indices may also be due to position adjustments in the market ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee meeting outcome. The committee is widely expected to hold the interest rate at 5.25%. Most economists polled by Informist said keeping the policy stance unchanged at neutral will give the rate-setting panel room to respond to any future shock arising from the war. The committee had left the repo rate unchanged in the last three meetings after lowering it by 125 basis points in 2025.
Some fund managers said most of the shocks arising from the West Asia war have been absorbed by the government, taking a fiscal hit. According to a fund manager with a small-sized investment firm, the government and the RBI are unlikely to use both fiscal and monetary policy tools to tackle the impact from the war. The policymakers will save the monetary policy tool if the situation worsens from what it is now, the fund manager said. Last week, the central banks of the US, the UK, and Japan kept their key interest rates unchanged. However, the decision was not unanimous as some policymakers within the respective committees voted for a hike. They held the key policy rates unchanged amid near-term inflation concerns due to the war in West Asia.
US$1 = INR 95.37
Edited by Saji George Titus
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