More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026

By Sunil Raghu

AHMEDABAD – Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. is expected to report a year-on-year jump in its net profit for the June quarter, riding on soaring global crude oil prices which rose sharply in the March quarter and remained elevated in the reporting quarter. This was in the wake of war in the West Asia and closure of the key supply artery--Strait of Hormuz--for global crude oil and natural gas. Although prices eased slightly to average about $97 per barrel in the June quarter from about $104 per barrel in the March quarter, dated Brent was still up nearly 45% year-on-year from $67 per barrel averaged in the June quarter of 2025, analysts tracking the Indian oil and gas major said in their reports.

The analysts see that rupee depreciation of nearly 10% year-on-year likely adding to ONGC's earnings in the June quarter. However, they also see a 2% drop in crude oil and 3% year-on-year drop in natural gas production by the company.

For the June quarter, ONGC is projected to report a net profit of INR 143.89 billion, up over 79% on year and over 116% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. The upstream oil company is expected to report a year-on-year jump in its net profit for second consecutive quarter. Estimates for the company's bottom line range from a high of nearly INR 177 billion by 360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd. to a low of over INR 106 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

The state-run enterprise is primarily engaged in exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and some value-added products. It produces around 70% of India's crude oil and 84% of its natural gas. Crude oil production contributed nearly 42% to the company's turnover in the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) while natural gas production contributed around 51%. ONGC sells a bulk of its domestic production to refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd.

The company's top line is expected to rise over 41% on year and nearly 26% on quarter to INR 452.13 billion, according to the average of 13 estimates. Forecasts for revenue from operations range from a high of INR 486.80 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. to a low of INR 331.53 billion by JM Financial.

Kotak Securities Ltd. sees ONGC's overall crude oil sales volume to fall nearly 2% on year to 4.6 million tonnes and gross crude price realisation at $101.3 a barrel, up 53% on year and 29% on quarter. It expects net oil price realisation of $74.8 per barrel, up 54% on year and 32% on quarter. The brokerage sees natural gas sales volume at 3.78 billion cubic metres, down 2.4% on year, and average gas price realisation of $8.3 per mBtu, up 18% year-on-year because of higher government-fixed domestic gas prices and of new well gas.

ONGC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be over INR 268 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of 10 estimates. The projections for EBITDA range from a high of over INR 290 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. and a low of over INR 238 billion by JM Financial. Last year, ONGC's standalone EBITDA stood at INR 187 billion.

"We anticipate ONGC EBITDA to rise 57 % year-on-year on higher benchmark Brent oil prices (+45% YoY) and INR depreciation (10% YoY) part offset by lower oil (-2% YoY) and gas (-3% YoY) production. We expect gas realisations to improve by 29% year-on-year, on higher Administered Pricing Mechanism (+5%), New Well Gas (+62%) prices further supported by a superior volume mix on higher New Well Gas," Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. said.

ONGC is set to announce its June quarter earnings Monday. At 1111 IST, its shares were up 0.2% at INR 242.52 per share on the National Stock Exchange. The shares have fallen 16% since the company reported its March quarter earnings on May 25.

Of the 11 research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 327. This is nearly 35% higher than the current market price of the scrip. Two brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the stock with an average price target of INR 292, and two have a 'sell' call with an average price target of INR 258.

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates for ONGC from 13 brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.