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Informist, Monday, Aug. 3, 2026

By Adhithya Aji

MUMBAI - Strong growth in the cash market and equity derivative segments is likely to help BSE Ltd. to report healthy earnings for the June quarter, analysts said. They also expect the exchange's market share to improve during the quarter, driven by the same factors.

The stock exchange is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 8.46 billion for the June quarter, up nearly 8% sequentially and over 60% on year, according to the average of estimates from five brokerages. The highest estimate for the bottom line is INR 8.80 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., while the lowest is INR 8.08 billion from HDFC Securities Ltd.

BSE's consolidated revenue is estimated at INR 15.94 billion for the June quarter, up around 2% sequentially and over 66% on year, as per the average of estimates. The highest estimate for the top line is INR 16.15 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services, while the lowest is INR 15.83 billion from Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

Higher transaction revenue, driven by strong cash market and equity derivatives volumes, is likely to support BSE's year-on-year revenue growth in the June quarter, Motilal Oswal said. BSE's options premium was at INR 296 billion in the June quarter, up 2% on quarter and 96% on year. This is also likely to drive the transaction revenue for the stock exchange, according to HDFC Securities.

The company's operating revenue is expected to grow around 65% on year on the back of growth in the cash market and sustained momentum in the derivatives segment, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. said. "Driven by healthy growth in the cash market and sustained momentum in the derivatives segment, we expect operating revenue in Q1 (Apr-June) to grow by around 65% YoY (year-on-year)," Prabhudas Lilladher said.

The equity derivatives segment is expected to post revenue of INR 11.55 billion, which is 73% of the estimated revenue, HDFC Securities said. For the March quarter, the segment had reported revenue of INR 11.28 billion.

"BSE's sustained high ADPTV (average daily premium traded volumes) drives best-ever margin," Nuvama Institutional Equities said. According to the brokerage, BSE reported a strong 2.4% on quarter growth in index option average daily premium traded volumes. "This is likely to drive moderate earnings growth," Nuvama said. For the March quarter, the exchange's average premium turnover was at INR 298.21 billion. 

Strong trading volume is expected to drive the earnings growth for BSE, according to Prabhudas Lilladher. The exchange's cash average daily turnover grew by 38% on year and over 10% on quarter to INR 99.60 billion, the brokerage said.         

Brokerages expect BSE's market share to improve sequentially. The stock exchange continued to gain market share despite an around 20% fall in industry premium, according to HDFC Securities. "BSE is expected to witness market share gains in the cash segment from the implementation of smart order routing and steady improvement in F&O as it continues to add colocation racks," Motilal Oswal said. The brokerage said market share is likely to improve on gains in derivatives notional turnover and options premium turnover.

The exchange's share in F&O notional turnover improved to over 49% in the June quarter, against 46% in the previous quarter. Options premium turnover rose to over 36% in the reporting quarter, higher than 30% in the March quarter, according to Motilal Oswal. 

From Apr. 1, the Reserve Bank of India tightened the lending norms for banks for capital market intermediaries. Brokerages are of the view that this is likely to have an impact on the exchange's volume. This is a key factor to look out for in the reporting quarter earnings, they said. BSE will announce its June quarter earnings Tuesday.

The company's comments on cash market share improvement are another factor to watch.

Monday, BSE's shares ended 2.0% lower at INR 3,575 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has fallen nearly 10% since BSE announced its March-quarter earnings in May. Of the six brokerage reports available on the company with Informist, four have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 4,282, while the remaining two have a 'hold' recommendation. The average target price for the 'buy' call is nearly 20% higher than the current market price.  

The following are the June quarter earnings estimates for BSE from five brokerages, in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

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Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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