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EquityWireEarnings Outlook: Higher ARPU, more users to charge up Bharti Airtel Q1 PAT
Earnings Outlook

Higher ARPU, more users to charge up Bharti Airtel Q1 PAT

This story was originally published at 16:07 IST on 3 August 2026
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Informist, Monday, Aug. 3, 2026

 

By Shakshi Jain

 

NEW DELHI – Bharti Airtel Ltd. is expected to post healthy sequential growth in its consolidated net profit for the June quarter, helped by a marginal growth in average revenue per user from subscriber migration to higher-generation network and one extra day in the quarter. Revenues are expected to rise moderately on the back of new subscriber additions, according to analysts. Brokerages estimate sustained growth in revenues from both the India and Africa businesses for the quarter.

 

The telecommunications major's consolidated net profit for the June quarter is expected to rise nearly 17% sequentially and almost 44% on year to INR 85.51 billion, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. Excluding exceptional items reported for the March quarter, the bottom line is expected to decline over 18% on quarter. The net profit estimates range from a low of INR 71.97 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. to a high of INR 96.8 billion from Nomura Equity Research.

 

The New Delhi-based company's consolidated revenues are expected to grow 3.4% sequentially and nearly 16% on year to INR 572.89 billion, according to the estimates. The highest estimate for the top line is INR 581.05 billion from JM Financial and the lowest is INR 565.82 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

 

Bharti Airtel had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 73.25 billion on revenues of INR 553.83 billion for the March quarter. The company has also recognised a one-time charge of INR 31.61 billion for the quarter associated with regulatory and government levies.

 

India's second-largest telecom player by subscriber base net added over 8 million users in the June quarter, according to data released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, which also includes machine-to-machine cellular mobile connections. Excluding the machine-to-machine figures, brokerages estimate Bharti Airtel added four-five million wireless subscribers in the June quarter. Centrum Broking Ltd. and Kotak Securities Ltd. estimate the company's India average revenue per user in the quarter improved to INR 261 from INR 257 in the March quarter. Motilal Oswal and Nomura have a slightly conservative average revenue per user estimate of INR 260.

 

In the March quarter, Bharti Airtel added 5.8 million smartphone customers and 0.8 million postpaid customers to take its total customer base to 665.97 million.

 

AFRICA BOOST

Segment-wise, Nuvama estimates 1.9% sequential growth for the India mobile services segment and 5.2% improvement for the Africa business for the reporting quarter. The former recorded sales worth INR 288.31 billion for the March quarter, accounting for 52% of the company's overall top line. The Africa mobile services segment contributed INR 160.34 billion, or 29%, to the company's revenues.

 

Nomura estimates around 2% sequential growth in India wireless revenues for the quarter to INR 295.1 billion, led by new subscriber additions and a modest increase in average revenue per user. JM Financial and Motilal Oswal expect 2.5% sequential growth for the segment. For the Africa business, Nomura has pencilled in a 10% sequential growth in sales at INR 176 billion. The Africa business is likely to have benefited from favourable forex movement and sustained strong subscriber additions, it said.

 

Nomura has factored in a 2% quarter-on-quarter growth for the enterprise business at INR 56 billion and a 3% growth in digital television revenues at INR 7.7 billion. "We anticipate Homes business revenue of INR 23.6 bn (billion) in 1QFY27F, up a strong 8% q-q and 37% y-y, reflecting continued momentum in home broadband additions," the brokerage said.

 

Bharti Airtel's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to stay largely flat sequentially at INR 326.76 billion, according to the average of seven estimates. The highest EBITDA estimate is INR 334.26 billion from JM Financial and the lowest is INR 323 billion from Motilal Oswal.

 

The telecom giant had reported a consolidated EBITDA of INR 320.38 billion for the March quarter and an EBITDA margin of 57.8%. The earnings before interest and tax, or EBIT, margin for the March quarter stood at 32.8%. "EBIT margin is likely to fall by 69bps QoQ on account of higher operating costs, mainly towards data centre investment and network expansion," Axis Securities said.

 

Bharti Airtel will announce its June-quarter results Tuesday. Market participants await management commentary on the outlook tied to the various business verticals, average revenue per user, customer additions, and 5G rollout.

 

Monday, shares of Bharti Airtel closed 0.1% lower at INR 1,970.50 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is up over 10% since the company reported its March-quarter results but down more than 10% from its 52-week high of INR 2,174.5, recorded on Nov. 21.

 

Of the 11 research recommendations on Bharti Airtel available with Informist, ten have a "buy" recommendation on the stock and one has a "sell" call. The average target price of the "buy" recommendations is INR 2,296. This is over 16% higher than the current market price.

 

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Bharti Airtel from nine brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage

Net Sales

Net Profit

EBITDA

Nomura Equity Research

576.20

96.80

329.70

Axis Securities Ltd

569.34

93.89

 

Kotak Securities Ltd

570.72

88.27

323.15

Centrum Broking Ltd

571.74

86.39

327.17

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

576.00

86.30

323.00

Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd

574.68

84.88

325.65

360 ONE Capital Market Pvt Ltd

570.45

82.20

 

Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd

565.82

78.89

324.36

JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd

581.05

71.97

334.26

Average

572.89

85.51

326.76

 

End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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