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Informist, Friday, Jul. 31, 2026

         

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--IMD: India Jul rainfall 1?ove normal at 283.3 mm
--IMD: India monsoon Jun-Jul rainfall nearly 13?low normal at 389.8 mm
--IMD: Barring central India, all regions received below-normal rains in Jul
--IMD: East, northeast India recorded highest deficit rainfall in Jun-Jul
--IMD: East, northeast India monsoon season rains nearly 30?low normal
--IMD: East, northeast India July rains 6th lowest on record since 1901
--IMD: Moderate El Nino conditions prevailed in July
--IMD: Moderate El Nino conditions may remain in Aug, to strengthen in Sept
--IMD: Aug rainfall seen below-normal at 94% of long-period average
--IMD: See below-normal rainfall over most parts of India in Aug
--IMD: India Aug-Sept rainfall seen below-normal at 94% of long-period average   
--IMD: See below-normal over many parts of India during Aug-Sept
--IMD: Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole seen continuing during Aug-Sept

 

MUMBAI – For the remaining two months of the southwest monsoon season that runs from June through September, India is forecast to continue receiving below-normal rainfall as El Nino conditions are expected to persist through August and September. Although rainfall improved in July, it was not enough to compensate for the deficit in June, the India Meteorological Department said.

In July, all-India rainfall was recorded at 283.3 millimetres, just 1?ove the normal, an improvement from the 35?ficit logged in June. The cumulative rainfall from Jun. 1 to Jul. 31 was nearly 13?low normal at 389.8 millimetres, according to the weather bureau. For August and Aug-Sept, it has forecast average rainfall to be below normal, or less than 94% of the long-period average of 254.9 millimetres and 422.8 millimetres, respectively.

 

In July, rainfall was "very much concentrated in the central part of the country, especially starting from Odisha to Gujarat," the met department's Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. "But South India and eastern and northeast India continue with higher deficiency (than June)," he said, adding that rainfall was nearly 30?ficient in east and northeast India and 25?low normal in South India.

 

"The cumulative rainfall over East & Northeast India was 299.8 millimetres, making it the sixth lowest since 1901, highlighting one of the driest monsoon seasons on record for the region," the weather bureau said in a release. Barring central India, all regions received below-normal rains in July.

 

Mohapatra said rainfall was unevenly distributed in July and it was "highly skewed" towards central India, particularly over Odisha, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. As a result, central India recorded 426.8 millimetres of rain, 33?ove the normal.

 

These above-normal rains occurred despite moderate El Nino conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole remaining in the neutral phase. Rainfall activity improved in July due to the formation of many low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, helping many parts of central India to receive good rains during the month.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could abate the impact of an El Nino event. However, the impact of an El Nino event is typically more powerful than that of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

 

The weather bureau expects El Nino conditions to remain moderate during August but strengthen towards September as the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to transition from neutral to positive during September, Mohapatra said. "Therefore, August-September rainfall, if you look at it for the country as a whole, we can expect below-normal rainfall activity, that is less than 94%," he said. However, "above-normal" rains can be expected over some parts of central India, northern parts of northwest India, and parts of east and northeast India, he added. 

 

On temperatures, the meteorological department said the average maximum temperatures in August are expected to remain above normal over most parts of the country. "However, some areas of northwest India and central India, along with isolated regions of the southern peninsula, are likely to experience normal to below-normal monthly average maximum temperatures," it added. Meanwhile, the average minimum temperatures during August are expected to remain normal to above-normal over most parts of the country, it said.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker and J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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