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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 30, 2026

By Sunil Raghu

AHMEDABAD - NHPC Ltd. is expected to report an on-year fall in its bottom line for the quarter ended June and an increase in the revenue. Hydro generation companies typically see a seasonally strong June quarter, but El Nino-related conditions have posed headwinds this year. Brokerages believe NHPC was in a better position compared with its peers, and expect NHPC power generation to increase at least 8% year-on-year, leading to higher revenues.

The power producer's net profit for the June quarter is seen at INR 10.4 billion, down 3% year-on-year and nearly 22% from the trailing quarter, according to the average of estimates from four broking firms. The net profit estimate of INR 9.1 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. is the lowest and of INR 11.9 billion by Bank of America Global Research is the highest estimate.

NHPC may report an over 24% year-on-year and over 35% quarter-on-quarter jump in revenue to INR 37 billion for the reporting quarter. The estimate of INR 40.2 billion by Bank of America Global research is highest for NHPC Ltd.'s June quarter sales and INR 35.3 billion the lowest by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

The hydroelectric power player's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation are likely at INR 22.6 billion, with INR 20.6 billion being the lowest estimate by Kotak Securities Ltd. and INR 26 billion being highest by Bank of America Global research.

For hydroelectric power players NHPC and SJVN Ltd., power generation is expected to remain subdued, JM Financial said. Bank of America expects a steady quarter for utilities, with 6% year-on-year earnings growth. Among them, NHPC could be impacted by under-recoveries, the brokerage stated in its report.

NHPC hydro generation increased 8% YoY to 9.4 billion units in the June quarter, supported by incremental generation from the recently commissioned Lower Subansiri project, Elara Securities said in its report. "As the company (NHPC) earns regulated returns on its asset base along with incentive income linked to plant availability and design energy, we expect its adjusted PAT (Q1FY26 includes a regulated income of INR 1.57 billion) to increase 9.2% YoY in Q1FY27," the brokerage said in its report.

NHPC had estimated its capital expenditure for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) at INR 150 billion. From FY28, the management sees capital expenditure at INR 120 billion-INR 130 billion.

Commentary on the Subansiri Lower hydroelectric project in Arunachal Pradesh will be among the key points to watch out for, according to analysts. The management had earlier said in a call with analysts that the company will add 2,744 megawatts from hydroelectric power in FY27. Updates from the company on projects in the pipeline will be awaited. The company would announce its June quarter earnings on Tuesday.

For the March quarter, NHPC had reported a revenue of INR 27.41 billion and a profit of INR 13.28 billion. Since then its stock has risen nearly 2%. Thursday, its shares closed at INR 78.16 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.3% from Wednesday. Of the three brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, two have a "buy" call on the stock with target prices of INR 92 per share, while one has a "sell" recommendation.

Following are the estimates for NHPC's earnings for the June quarter from four brokerages in INR billion in descending order of net profit:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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