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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 29, 2026

MUMBAI – Analysts maintain a positive stance on the Indian stock market and see the headline indices taking cues from global markets with the US Federal Open Market Committee's outcome due later in the day. While most expect US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to maintain status quo on the federal funds rate this time, his comments on inflation trajectory and economic growth would be keenly monitored, analysts said. Information technology stocks may continue to rise as the artificial intelligence-led boom loses momentum.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that about 64% of market participants expect the Fed to hold the interest rate and the remaining 36% expect a hike of 25 basis points. For the September meeting, the market participants are more divided. About 55% expect a 25 bp hike and 25% expect a 50-bp increase in the policy rate. Currently, the federal funds rate is at 3.50-3.75%.

Two heads of research of domestic brokerages expect the Fed to hold rates at the end of the August meeting. While one expects a hike of 25 bps at the September meeting, the other expects a 25-bp hike by the end of 2026. "I do not think he (Warsh) will act in today's meeting due to the issue of inflation on the supply side," a head of research at a small-sized broking firm said. "He will wait for some time, probably (raise rates) in next meeting."

Earlier some fund managers had said inflationary pressures would persist in India in the near term and the start of a hawkish cycle by the Fed may prompt the Reserve Bank of India to also begin raising rates. However, others had argued that given that India has exhausted most of its fiscal measures to tackle the impact of the West Asia war on the economy, it may save the monetary policy tools for the worst-case scenarios. 

"Nifty (50) has surpassed the crucial overhead resistance around 24000 and 24200 levels and closed higher (Wednesday)," Nagraj Shetti, senior technical analyst at HDFC Securities, said in a note. "The next upside targets to be watched are around 24500-24600 levels in the short term. Immediate supports to be watched are at 24100 levels."

Wednesday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24250.20 points after rising 264.85 points or 1.1%. The 50-stock index rose as high as 24283.55 points during the session. Tuesday analysts had forecast an immediate resistance of 24050 points, which the index has gone well past. Only 12 Nifty 50 stocks ended in the red. The BSE Sensex ended at 77654.60, up 888.68 points or 1.2%. Small-cap indices outperformed both the headline and mid-cap indices. Barring the index tracking real estate companies, all key sectoral indices ended higher.  End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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