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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 29, 2026

 

By Ashutosh Pati

 

MUMBAI – National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is expected to post robust earnings for the June quarter, driven by a surge in prices of aluminium due to the war in West Asia and higher sales volumes, according to brokerages tracking the company. However, this growth will be partly offset by subdued alumina prices and volumes.

 

The state-owned aluminium company is likely to report a standalone net profit of INR 19.10 billion for the June quarter, up nearly 80% on year and around 10% on quarter, as per the average of estimates from nine brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 20.34 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest is INR 17.67 billion from Axis Securities Ltd.

 

NALCO's revenues are likely to rise 40% on year and 6% on quarter to INR 53.19 billion, as per the average of estimates. These estimates range from a high of INR 55.90 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. to a low of INR 50.81 billion from Axis Securities.

 

NALCO is a key producer of alumina and aluminium, and sells both commodities in the domestic and international markets. Alumina is extracted from bauxite ore and then refined to produce aluminium. Kotak Securities expects NALCO's alumina sales for the quarter to be nearly flat at 305,000 tonnes and aluminium sales up over 1% at 115,000 tonnes.

 

Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange surged nearly 43% on year to an average of $3,520.2 per tonne in the June quarter, as the war in West Asia forced smelters in the region to curtail output amid damages to infrastructure. West Asia accounts for around 9% of global aluminium output.

 

"Stronger LME aluminium prices are expected to remain the primary earnings driver during the quarter," YES Securities said. "However, the benefit is likely to be partly offset by subdued alumina prices, flattish alumina volumes and higher operating costs arising from disruptions in the Middle East (West Asia)," the brokerage said.

 

NALCO's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter are likely to rise 62% on year and 3% on quarter to INR 26.19 billion, as per the average of eight estimates. The highest estimate for the company's EBITDA is INR 27.92 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. and the lowest is INR 23.92 billion from Axis Securities.

 

The company's on-year EBITDA growth for the quarter will be driven by higher contribution from its aluminium segment. NALCO's EBITDA margin is seen rising to 45.3-52.2% in the June quarter from 39.2% for the year-ago period, as per brokerages.

 

"EBITDA to increase...led by higher aluminium prices. QoQ (quarter-on-quarter) moderation in EBITDA growth due to higher RM (raw material) costs such as CP (calcined petroleum) coke, coal tar pitch," Axis Securities said. "Margins to expand YoY (year-on-year) led by higher Aluminium prices and volumes. QoQ margins likely to remain largely flat," the brokerage added.

 

Market participants will await the management's guidance on volumes for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) and alumina sales. Their outlook on aluminium prices and export disruptions due to the war in West Asia will also be watched. Investors also await updates on the ramp-up of its fifth stream alumina refinery. NALCO was expected to commission the fifth stream to increase its alumina refining capacity by 1 million tonnes per annum in June.

 

NALCO will detail its June quarter earnings Friday. At 1427 IST, shares of the company were up 3% at INR 344.40 on the National Stock Exchange. The company had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 17.18 billion for the March quarter on revenues of INR 50.13 billion. Since then, shares of the company have fallen 14%.

 

Of the eight brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, only Religare Broking Ltd. has a "buy" recommendation on the stock. Five brokerages have a "hold" or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 382 per share. This is nearly 11% higher than the current market price. Two brokerages have a "sell" recommendation.

 

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates for NALCO from nine brokerages, in INR billion, in descending order of the net profit estimate:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	53.44	20.34	27.90
ICICI Securities Ltd.	54.65	20.19	27.46
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	53.19	19.97	27.92
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	53.61	19.90	26.72
Kotak Securities Ltd.	50.94	18.88	25.62
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd.	55.90	18.80	25.50
360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.	52.06	18.17	--
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	54.10	18.00	24.50
Axis Securities Ltd.	50.81	17.67	23.92
Average	53.19	19.10	26.19

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.65

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

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