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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 29, 2026

By Avishek Rakshit

KOLKATA – Operational break-even of Swiggy Ltd.'s quick-commerce business and increasing operating leverage from its existing dark stores are expected to cut its losses year-on-year in the June quarter. Revenue is expected to increase substantially owing to net order value growth in the quarter. 

Swiggy's consolidated net loss is expected to narrow to INR 7.30 billion in the June quarter from INR 11.97 billion a year ago, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. The company had reported a net loss of around INR 8 billion in the March quarter. However, the consolidated revenue for the June quarter is expected to rise over 36% on year to nearly INR 68 billion, according to the average of estimates. On a sequential basis, the revenue is expected to rise nearly 6%. 

The highest estimate for Swiggy's net loss is INR 8.37 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 5.20 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd. The highest estimate for revenue is slightly more than INR 70 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., and the lowest is INR 65.53 billion from Motilal Oswal. Swiggy will declare its financial results for the quarter Thursday.

HDFC Securities expects Swiggy, which has a 43% market share in the country's online food delivery business, to report 33% on-year revenue growth in the June quarter, with its quick-commerce business housed under the Instamart brand registering strong 41% on year growth in its gross order and net order value. Food delivery is expected to register 18% on year growth in gross order value in the June quarter. 

Gross order value represents the total revenue of delivery platforms before deductions, including discounts, taxes, and delivery fees, indicating top line sales volume. Net order value is the actual revenue remaining after subtracting returns, discounts, and fees, reflecting true earnings. Thus, gross order value shows the platform size, while net order value shows profitability.

The average order value, according to HDFC Securities, is likely to be around INR 489 for food deliveries and INR 686 for quick commerce. Monthly transacting users are estimated to have risen 16% on year for food deliveries and 26% on year for quick commerce verticals.  

However, brokerage Kotak estimates Swiggy's net merchandise value for Instamart to grow 4.1% on quarter, which is slower than the competition, on account of customer attrition and slow store addition.

Swiggy is expected to report an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation loss of INR 5.40 billion in the June quarter, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. The highest loss of INR 6.92 billion is estimated by brokerage Motilal Oswal and, the lowest loss of INR 3.61 billion is estimated by brokerage Kotak. 

Brokerage Kotak estimates a 40 basis points on-quarter contribution margin decline in Swiggy's food delivery business to 7.4% in the June quarter which is expected to result in a 3% EBITDA margin as a percentage of gross merchandise value from the food delivery segment, down 30 bps on-quarter. 

Tuesday, shares of Swiggy closed at INR 268.47 on the National Stock Exchange, up 4.1% from the previous close. The shares have fallen over 12% since the company announced its March quarter earnings in May. 

Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, eight have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 425. One brokerage has a 'sell' recommendation. 

Brokerages will track Swiggy's commentary and moves on platform-funded discounts on its food delivery and quick commerce platforms to pull in more customers and trends in its gross order value growth.

Following are the June earnings estimates for Swiggy from nine brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net loss in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Himanshi Gupta 

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