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Informist, Monday, Jul. 27, 2026

By Rajesh Gajra

MUMBAI – Tata Steel Ltd.'s top-line performance for the June quarter is seen to mirror the delivery volumes data, which showed strong on-year growth in India volumes partly offset by declines in output from the Netherlands, the UK, and Thailand. The consolidated operating profit is expected to be boosted by likely price hikes by the company in India, ongoing measures to optimise operating costs, and increased output from captive mines that mitigated elevated iron ore costs. The bottom-line performance of Tata Steel is seen to be supported almost entirely by the projected operating profit growth and weighed down by an expected increase in depreciation and amortisation, and tax expenses.

The company is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 24.44 billion for the June quarter, up 10.6% on year, according to the average of estimates from 19 brokerages. Sequentially, the net profit is seen down 25%. The highest estimate for the net profit is INR 36.59 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest is INR 18.51 billion from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.

The company's consolidated revenue from operations for the quarter is expected to be INR 588.02 billion. Excluding an outlier estimate of revenues of INR 680.24 billion by Axis Securities Ltd., the average is INR 582.89 billion, up 9.6% on year and down 7.9% on quarter. The highest estimate of revenues is INR 633.33 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., after excluding the Axis Securities estimate, and the lowest is INR 548.81 billion from Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.

On Jul. 8, Tata Steel had reported an on-year rise of 8.8% in its delivery volume of crude steel for India to 5.17 million tonnes for the quarter. The Netherlands delivery volume declined 6.7% to 1.40 million tonnes due to the shutdown of a direct sheet factory in April, while the UK volumes fell 20% to 480,000 tonnes, and Thailand volumes declined 2.9% to 330,000 tonnes.

Overall, the delivery volume increased 2.6% on year to 7.38 million tonnes in the June quarter. The India operations had the highest volume share of 70%, followed by Netherlands at 19%, the UK at 7%, and Thailand at 5% in the June quarter.

Tata Steel's overall revenue growth is seen strong for the quarter on the back of resilient domestic hot rolled coil realisations, favourable import parity, and lower exposure to weak long steel pricing, according to Elara Securities. The prices of hot rolled coil steel were INR 58,519 per tonne on average in the June quarter, up sharply from INR 51,581 in the year-ago quarter, data from Elara's report showed.

The India business is seen as the primary driver for Tata Steel's revenue growth by brokerage YES Securities. "Higher net sales realisations driven by robust domestic pricing" are expected to be major tailwinds for the company's top-line growth, Axis Securities said.

Further, Tata Steel's June quarter operational performance is seen strong on higher operating profit as compared to the year-ago quarter. The consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is seen at INR 90.84 billion, up 40% on year and down 8.7% sequentially, according to the average of estimates by 17 brokerages.

According to Elara, in addition to higher net realisations, continued cost optimisation, captive raw material advantage, and improving profitability across its India operations should help offset the impact of higher iron ore costs. Brokerage Equirus expects the company's standalone cost per tonne to fall 5.4% on year to INR 47,605 per tonne. The brokerage also expects standalone realisation per tonne to be flat at INR 65,320 and the EBITDA per tonne to increase 18.2% to INR 17,715 per tonne. HDFC Securities Ltd. sees Tata Steel's consolidated operating expenses per tonne up 1.1% on year to INR 64,983 per tonne for the June quarter, amid a 3.9% rise in the net sales realisation to INR 77,637 per tonne.

The bottom-line growth of Tata Steel is seen to be lower than the expected growth in EBITDA. Depreciation and tax costs are seen rising sharply on year and weighing down net profit growth. Both depreciation and tax costs are expected to rise 47% on year, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., while Kotak expects depreciation to rise 42% and tax costs to rise 58%. These two expense items made up 9% of revenues in the year-ago quarter.

Tata Steel will detail its June quarter earnings Thursday. Tuesday, its shares closed at INR 182.63 on the National Stock Exchange, down nearly 1% from Monday. The shares are down 16% from May 15, when the company announced its March quarter earnings.

Of the 16 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 12 have a "buy" call on the stock with the average target price of INR 241, which implies an upside potential of 32% over the current market price. Three brokerages have a "hold" recommendation, and one has a "sell" call at a target price of INR 176.

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates for Tata Steel in INR billion from 19 brokerages, in descending order of estimate of net profit:

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Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

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