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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 28, 2026

By Anand JC

MUMBAI – Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. is projected to report its weakest year-on-year profit growth in eight quarters for the June quarter despite strong growth in despatches because of a sharp spike in commodity costs, according to brokerage estimates. M&M's revenues are expected to get a leg up from improved realisations driven by recent price hikes.

M&M's net profit for the June quarter is expected to rise a touch over 4% on year to INR 35.96 billion, according to the average of 15 estimates. Projections for M&M's net profit range from a low of INR 34.41 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. to a high of INR 39.38 billion by 360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.

The Thar maker's revenue from operations is forecast to be INR 417.39 billion, up a little over 22% on year, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for M&M's revenue is INR 434.42 billion from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd., and the lowest is INR 399.54 billion from Nomura Equity Research.

"M&M's standalone revenue is expected to grow about 23% on year, driven by strong tractor and sports utility vehicle volumes, improved auto realisations, higher electric vehicle mix, and recent price hikes, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said. M&M sold 462,462 vehicles, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and tractors, in the June quarter, up 21% on year. Sales of its automobiles improved 23% on year to 304,421 units while despatches of tractors improved 18% to 158,041 units.

The Mumbai-based automotive giant is India's top company by revenue market share in the sport utility vehicle segment, light commercial vehicles with payload capacity under 3.5 tonnes, and electric three-wheelers. It has been gaining considerable traction on the electric passenger vehicle charts as well. The company's revenue is seen increasing 22% on year to INR 415.15 billion because of a 23% increase in automotive revenues driven by exports, sales of light commercial vehicles and SUVs and a 19% growth in revenues from the tractor business, Kotak Securities said.

M&M's SUV-only passenger vehicle portfolio and premiumisation have helped it gain traction among customers who are more resilient to inflation, which gives it more flexibility to hike prices without hurting demand, Prabhudas Lilladher said. In the June quarter, M&M increased prices of its conventional fuel-run cars and light commercial vehicles by around 2.5% to offset inflation in raw material prices.

In its tractor segment, M&M is positive about growth despite the forecast of a weak monsoon this year. The management has guided for mid-single-digit tractor industry growth for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) and raised its medium-term guidance. The management expects the low base in the first half of FY26 to support year-on-year growth for the whole of FY27.

According to M&M, early trends as of May had supported its outlook. "We already see that play out in April, where the industry, of course, that is, billing numbers, but still there is enough positive momentum and sentiment to be able to bill for us for the season," the company had said in the investor call for the March quarter in May. "The government spending on rural and agriculture continues to be positive. We've seen in the past that one factor is the rains, the second factor is government spending. When government spending is very good, there is cash flow coming into the rural economy," the company said.

M&M's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter are expected to be INR 52.61 billion, up nearly 8% on year, according to the average of 11 estimates. The highest estimate for the Scorpio maker's EBITDA is INR 54.83 billion from PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 50.76 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

The EBIT margin of M&M's automotive business is expected to rise 200 basis points on quarter to 7.5% due to price increases and cost-cutting measures, which are expected to be offset by rising input costs and higher sales of electric vehicles, PhillipCapital said. The firm expects M&M's tractor business' EBIT margin to fall 100 bps on quarter due to input cost pressures.

"Higher commodity costs and EV penetration (margin dilutive) should be partially offset by cost optimisation efforts, price hikes and better operating leverage resulting in 140 bps YoY margin decline," Prabhudas Lilladher said. The company had reported an EBITDA margin of 14.3% in the year-ago quarter.

M&M will announce its earnings for the June quarter on Thursday. Tuesday, shares of M&M closed 1% higher at INR 3,271.20 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares are up around 2% since the company announced its March quarter earnings on May 5.

Of the 15 research reports on the company available with Informist, all have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 4,046. This is around 24% higher than the closing price of M&M's shares Tusesday.

The following are the June quarter earnings estimates for M&M from 15 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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