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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 28, 2026

MUMBAI – The intensity and spread of rainfall fluctuated significantly during July, with the first week being exceptionally wet and the second week being markedly dry. Rainfall has been marginally normal so far in July, and the month is likely to end with near-normal rainfall, with around 9.0–9.5 millimetres of showers expected daily until Friday, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. However, the season's deficit is likely to remain at 15%, the weather agency said. 

Rainfall during the first week of July reduced the season's deficit to 14% from 40%. This was followed by a dry spell during the second week of the month which erased the weekly surplus of nearly 50%, sending the season's deficit higher to 24%. Thereafter, an intense spell of showers persisted from Jul. 21-24, which wiped out July's deficit and reduced the season's deficit to 15%. 

A total of 46.6 millimetres of normal rainfall is required before the month ends, the weather agency said. With a deep depression currently lying over the Bay of Bengal and a cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan, no significant shortfall in showers is likely during the last few days of the month.

There are no clear indications that the season's shortfall of 15% could be recovered during the second half of monsoon, the weather agency said. The major chunk of recovery will depend on the strength of the developing El Nino and the extent of the build-up of the Indian Ocean Dipole.

In the next 10 days, east, northeast, and northwest India are likely to record a fairly good spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The central parts of the country, including Maharashtra and Gujarat, are expected to experience a lean phase of the monsoon during this period, while the south peninsular India is expected to remain deprived of significant spells of showers, the agency said. The interior and southeastern parts of south peninsular India are likely to be particularly rain-starved during this period. 

A clearer outlook of the seasonal rainfall is expected to emerge during the first week of August, the weather agency said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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