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Informist, Friday, Jul. 24, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – The rise in demand and sales of domestic coal to generate electricity, and a year-on-year rise in premium earned through e-auction prices are expected to prop up Coal India Ltd.'s revenue for the June quarter. However, overall lower production volumes due to closure of its key mining block are expected to negatively affect the company's bottom line for the June quarter.

 

Coal India is expected to see its consolidated net profit for the June quarter fall nearly 3% year-on-year and over 21% from the trailing quarter to over INR 85 billion, according to an average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The top line is expected to jump over 20% on year but fall over 7% on quarter to nearly INR 431 billion, according to the estimates.

 

The highest estimate for net profit is nearly INR 99 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., and the lowest is INR 70 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. The highest projection for revenue is over INR 500 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. and the lowest is INR 323 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. Coal India will announce its earnings for the June quarter on Monday.

 

On Jul. 1, Coal India announced its sales and production volumes for the June quarter. It recorded 169.6 million tonnes of coal production for the three months, down 7.5% on year, as production from Mahanadi Coalfields fell 18.3% on year to 14.5 million tonnes in the June quarter.

 

In contrast, total sales for the company increased 3.5% on year to 197.7 million tonnes. Of this, the company sold 154.75 million tonnes of coal to the power sector in Apr-Jun, up nearly 2% from 151.93 million tonnes in the June quarter of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar). Coal India's supplies to the non-regulated sector, primarily comprising steel, ferro-alloys, cement, and other sectors, rose 10% on year to 43.1 million tonnes. The higher supplies also enabled Coal India to liquidate 28.3 million tonnes of pithead coal stock during the June quarter. For FY27, the coal miner has set a production target of 815 million tonnes and a supply target of 850 million tonnes.

 

In what is seen as an indicator of better operational efficiency and improved ability to scale coal production and dispatch, Coal India recorded 23% year-on-year growth in coal supplies at 66.76 million tonnes through its first-mile connectivity infrastructure for the quarter. The first-mile connectivity infrastructure refers to a system that helps move coal from mine pithead to the railway loading point using mechanised infrastructure as conveyor belts, silos, and rapid loading systems instead of trucks.

 

Brokerages expect the Maharatna company to partially offset the decline in volume through higher realisations from sales under fuel supply agreements, and higher e-auction prices during the quarter are likely to prop up the overall revenue and profit.

 

Long-term coal supply contracts, often referred to as fuel supply agreements by Coal India, make up the bulk of the company's sales and around 80% of its sales volume, but it is the e-auctions that directly boost its profit. This is because the cost of mining is the same for coal sold via e-auctions, or under supply agreements. At the auctions, prices are driven by demand and are set at least 20% higher than prevalent notified prices by Coal India.

 

Improvement in blended realisation will offset the decline in volume, and Coal India's top line is expected to rise 20% on year. Nuvama Wealth Management expects Coal India's blended price realisation to rise sharply by 41% on year to INR 2,361 per tonne and e-auction realisation to jump 33% on year to INR 3,100 per tonne. Price realisation from long-term contract sales could increase 38% on year to INR 2,138 a tonne. Blended price realisation is the average price realisation from fuel supply agreements, e-auctions, and sales of washed coking and thermal coal. Kotak Securities, however, expects Coal India's blended realisation to fall 2% on year to INR 1,635 per tonne and e-auction realisation at INR 2,400 a tonne.

 

Coal India sells coal at pre-determined, notified prices to consumers under supply agreements. However, the company also offers coal to consumers through auctions, at premium prices. For the June quarter, Coal India put on offer 82.92 million tonnes and allocated 31.07 million tonnes through e-auction. The company earned a premium of over 44% over notified prices, the company said in a stock exchange filing.

 

Coal India is expected to report earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation of nearly INR 119 billion for the June quarter, according to an average of nine estimates. The highest projection for EBITDA is over INR 147 billion by Elara Securities and the lowest is INR 75 billion by Kotak Securities.

 

At 0956 IST, shares of Coal India traded almost flat at INR 427 on the National Stock Exchange. The company's shares have risen nearly 6% since it reported its March quarter earnings on Apr. 27. 

 

Of the 13 brokerage reports on Coal India available with Informist, 10 have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 509. This is nearly 19% higher than the stock's closing price Thursday. Two brokerages have a "sell" call and, one has a "hold".

 

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Coal India from 10 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	449.26	98.99	147.25
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	500.20	95.50	117.40
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	378.64	94.30	135.40
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	439.30	93.30	117.90
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.	469.03	90.86	--
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	458.07	81.35	120.35
Kotak Securities Ltd.	323.33	78.03	75.24
Axis Securities Ltd.	374.24	76.30	114.71
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	463.41	73.32	114.44
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	451.85	69.62	125.11
Average	430.73	85.16	118.64

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

 

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