More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Jul. 23, 2026

By Deesha Jadhav

MUMBAI – Brokerages are divided on the June quarter earnings of ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd. While two expect the company to report a slightly higher profit for the quarter, one expects the profit to fall marginally due to lower revenues. The revenue estimate of the brokerage expecting a lower profit is the lowest among the three brokerages as well.

ZF Commercial is expected to report a net profit in the range of INR 1.12 billion and INR 1.27 billion, according to estimates from three brokerages. The highest estimate of INR 1.27 billion is from ICICI Securities Ltd. and the lowest estimate of INR 1.12 billion is from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. At the lower end of the band, the net profit will be almost 7% lower on year but at the upper end of the band, it will be nearly 6% higher from INR 1.20 billion in the year-ago quarter. 

The net sales of the company are expected in the range of INR 10.35 billion and INR 10.92 billion, according to the estimates. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 10.92 billion from ICICI Securities and the lowest is INR 10.35 billion from Anand Rathi. At the lower end of the band, net sales will be up more than 7% from INR 9.63 billion in the year-ago quarter. At the higher end, the estimated net sales will be up more than 13% on year.

ZF Commercial's revenues are expected to grow on the back of healthy demand in the domestic commercial vehicle segment, 360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd. said. The revenue growth will be supported by a resilient replacement market and gradual recovery in export volumes. Across the medium term, the key drivers of growth include mandatory implementation of advanced driver assistance systems and other advanced safety technologies in commercial vehicles, along with rising content per vehicle, the brokerage said.

The company's performance is expected to be healthy across segments, Anand Rathi said. A revenue growth of 26% is expected on the back of strong growth in production, premiumisation, and price hikes, the brokerage said.

Commercial vehicles sales grew 15% in the June quarter due to replacement demand and due to the cut in the GST rates, higher freight demand, and a pick-up in infra mining activities, despite adverse macroeconomic factors and higher fuel prices, brokerages said. The brokerage expects the automobile industry to grow 24.5% on year in the quarter. Strong automobile sales are expected to boost ZF Commercial's earnings.

The company's revenue is expected to be driven by volume growth of commercial vehicles and sound offtake in the aftermarket segment despite muted export demand, ICICI Securities said. The company is expected to report consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 1.61 billion for the June quarter, as per ICICI Securities. The company had reported an consolidated EBITDA of 1.32 billion in the year-ago quarter.

The EBITDA margins for automobile companies are likely to decline up to 190 basis points on quarter due to higher input costs, which will be slightly offset by the depreciation of the rupee and price hikes, Anand Rathi said.

ZF Commercial's consolidated EBITDA margin is expected to decline 160 basis points due to elevated commodity prices and higher other expenses, ICICI Securities said. However, 360 ONE Capital expects the margin to improve to 14.2% from 13.3%, on the back of operating leverage and a favourable product mix, partly offset by elevated commodity costs.

ZF Commercial Vehicle manufactures advanced braking systems, conventional braking products, and related air assisted technologies and systems. It also provides software development and other services. The company will report its June quarter earnings Friday. Thursday, shares of ZF Commercial closed flat at INR 2,365.80 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is up only marginally since the company announced its March quarter earnings in May.

All three research reports on the company available with Informist have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 2,884 per share, which is almost 22% higher than the closing price Thursday.

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for ZF Commercial Vehicle from three brokerages, in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Pankaj Aher

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.