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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 21, 2026

By Anand JC

MUMBAI – IndiGo airline operator InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. is expected to report a sharp fall in its profit for the June quarter, rocked by the US-Iran war which drove up costs and hurt travel sentiment. Subdued growth in domestic aviation traffic, elevated jet fuel prices, and a weaker rupee are expected to drag down the company's profit, analysts said.

InterGlobe Aviation is estimated to report a net profit of INR 12.30 billion for the June quarter, down 43% on year, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. These profit estimates for the airline vary rather sharply, with the lowest estimate being INR 3.81 billion from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. and the highest being INR 24.72 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

Elara Securities has factored in a foreign exchange gain of INR 1.6 billion and a 21% jump in air fare. IndiGo hiked fares on domestic and international routes to offset the pressure of costlier aviation turbine fuel.

The company's top line for the June quarter is estimated to rise 18% on year to INR 242.64 billion, according to the average of nine estimates. The highest estimate for the company's revenue is INR 250.06 billion from Elara Securities and the lowest is INR 239.20 billion from Anand Rathi.

IndiGo is India's largest airline by scale and commands 65% of the domestic market. The carrier operates over 2,200 flights daily to 141 destinations, including 96 domestic and 45 international, using a fleet of 441 aircraft. It has also placed orders for more than 920 aircraft, with deliveries scheduled through 2035

The company's earnings before interest, depreciation, amortisation, and rentals for the June quarter are expected to be INR 45.98 billion, down 20% on year, according to the average of seven estimates. The estimates range from a low of INR 38.71 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. to a high of INR 55.40 billion from Elara Securities.

Airlines incur significant costs on aircraft, engine, and warehouse rentals, as well as on aircraft repair and maintenance, all of which are essential to their operations. During the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), IndiGo spent INR 129.12 billion on supplementary rentals, and aircraft repair and maintenance, accounting for around 24% of its total expenses.

OPERATIONAL BACKDROP, VIEW

The June quarter was turbulent for airlines, just as it was a year ago. In May 2025, airline operations were severely affected by the military conflict between India and Pakistan after the terror attack in Pahalgam. Airspace restrictions by Pakistan increased block times on certain Western routes from north India for over 30 days, alongside flight cancellations on certain routes. The crash of the ill-fated Air India AI171 flight to the UK from Ahmedabad in June 2025 further dampened travel sentiment on international routes.

InterGlobe Aviation had guided for a mid-teen growth in its unit passenger revenue for the June quarter. Termed passenger revenue per available seat kilometre, this metric measures how much revenue an airline earns from selling its available seats to passengers. "May month (of 2025) was extremely weak. So that was the time when we were probably having a very low both load factors as well as the revenue environment," the company had told investors in May. "So when you do factor that into the base, this mid-teen increase is something which is seeming to be high. But on a base effect basis, it's not that significant."

The company has also guided for a capacity addition of 3-4% on year. This will be skewed more towards domestic capacity additions because of seasonality, the company has confirmed.

Prabhudas Lilladher expects InterGlobe Aviation's load factor in the June quarter to be 83.3%, compared with 84.6% in the year-ago quarter, because of subdued demand. Load factor is the percentage of an airline's available seats that are occupied by paying customers.

"We expect a strong 17% YoY (year-on-year) increase in yields resulting from a mix of fuel surcharge and weak base of last year," Kotak Securities Ltd. said. Yield refers to the average fare an airline earns per passenger-kilometre travelled.

InterGlobe Aviation will report its June quarter financials Thursday. Investors will track the management commentary on the impact of the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties on its international operations, updates on fleet addition, and how it handled the rise in fuel and non-fuel costs amid lower aircraft utilisation.

Tuesday, shares of the company closed at INR 5,305 on the National Stock Exchange, 1.5% higher from Monday. The stock is down roughly 18% since the company announced its March quarter earnings on May 29.

Of the 10 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, eight have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 5,598 per share. This is roughly 6% higher than the current market price. The remaining two brokerages each have a "sell" and a "hold" recommendation.

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for InterGlobe Aviation from nine brokerages, in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

End

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

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