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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 22, 2026

 

By Rajesh Gajra

 

MUMBAI – With Lodha Developers Ltd. expecting new launches to be smaller part of presales this financial year and only around 40% of the full year presales target of INR 240 billion to be met in in the first half, net profit growth in Apr-Jun is likely to moderate from that seen in the previous two June quarters. Revenue growth is also likely to follow the same trajectory for the reporting quarter.

 

As a result, projects launched as of Mar. 31 and their further phases are likely to contribute more to the company's net profit and revenue in the June quarter. Although the company notified earlier this month that it would not provide quarterly updates on launches, bookings, and presales June quarter onwards, analysts expect presales for said quarter to grow 6-8% on year.

 

The real estate developer, with projects and operations largely in metropolitan Mumbai, Pune, and Bengaluru, is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 8.79 billion, up 30% on year and down 13% on quarter, according to an average of estimates by eight brokerages. Excluding an outlier estimate of net profit of INR 14.54 billion from Elara Securities, the average is INR 7.93 billion, up 18% on year and down 21% on quarter. The highest estimate of net profit among seven brokerages, apart from the outlier, is INR 9.48 billion from Ambit Capital and the lowest is INR 6.57 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

 

The company's consolidated revenue from operations for the quarter is expected at INR 42.43 billion, up 22% on year and down 10% on quarter, according to an average of estimates by eight brokerages. Excluding an outlier estimate of revenue of INR 54.21 billion from Elara, the average is INR 40.74 billion, up 17% on year and down 14% on quarter. The highest estimate of revenue among seven brokerages is INR 47.52 billion from Ambit and the lowest is INR 36.68 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial.

 

Lodha Developers' consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are seen at INR 13.19 billion, according to an average of estimates by seven brokerages. Excluding an outlier estimate of EBITDA of INR 19.64 billion by Elara, the average EBITDA is INR 12.11 billion, up only 1% on year and down 27% on quarter.

 

The 18% on-year net profit growth for June quarter expected by brokerages, excluding the outlier estimate by Elara, is lower than the reported growth in net profit of 42% in the June quarter of FY26 and 166% growth in the same quarter of FY25. Similarly, the expected 17% on-year increase in revenue for the reporting quarter is lower than 23% growth reported in the year ago quarter and 76% in the June quarter of FY25.

 

Lodha Developers remained relatively measured on launches during Apr-Jun, with a larger portion of their launch pipeline expected to be unlocked Jul-Sept onwards, Bank of America global research said in its research note. The brokerage expects the company to have achieved around 20% of its FY27 new bookings target in the reporting quarter

 

Bank of America global research, along with Motilal Oswal Finance, sees presales of the company growing only 6% on year in the June quarter, while Kotak Securities expects the growth to be 15%.

 

Lodha Developers' management had said in the post-March quarter earnings conference call with investors and analysts that new launches constituted around one-third of the company's sales in FY26 and its contribution will be lower.

 

"What it's really telling you is that the inherent predictability of our sales is increasing and improving each year and the dependence on new launches is becoming lower, which is really where we find ourselves as more predictably placed internally as a business," Abhishek Lodha, managing director and chief executive officer of the company, had said in the call.

 

The company has planned for a few launches in metropolitan Mumbai region, Pune, Bengaluru, and also in the northern capital region where it recently forayed into. The company's revenue for FY27 will, therefore, be more dependent on sales from further phases of already launched projects. The company's revenue had grown 21% to INR 166.8 billion in FY26, and the presales had risen 16% to INR 205.3 billion.

 

As of Apr. 1, the available gross development value for sale was around INR 2 trillion, according to Lodha. "It means that we can meaningfully reduce business development capex over the next two years with the natural result being a significant step-up in free cash flow," he had said in the investor call.

 

Despite the company having no meaningful launches during the June quarter, sustained sales momentum is expected to lead to a 6% increase in presales, according to Motilal Oswal Financial. Kotak Securities expects presales of Lodha Developers at INR 51 billion, up 15% on year, for the June quarter , "aided by the liquidation of extant inventory, as well as new tower launches in... Andheri and Thane", in metropolitan Mumbai.

 

The company had guided for an embedded EBITDA margin of 32-34% for FY27. In the previous year, the EBITDA margin was 34%. Kotak Securities expects the June quarter EBITDA margin to be 30%.

 

The company will announce its earnings for the June quarter on Friday. Post-announcement, the key factors to watch will be the update on residential housing demand in Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, and the progress in the company's NCR foray.

 

Wednesday, shares of the company closed 3.2% lower at INR 1,161 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares have risen 43% from the date the March quarter earnings were announced. All seven brokerage reports on the company available with Informist have a "buy" call on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,227.

 

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Lodha Developers from eight brokerages in descending order of estimate of net profit, in INR million:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	54,205	14,544	19,636
Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd	47,523	9,488	14,191
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	40,879	8,318	12,680
HDFC Securities Ltd	41,900	8,299	12,514
Kotak Securities Ltd	38,745	7,956	11,513
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	40,028	7,790	11,350
360 ONE Capital Market Pvt Ltd	39,456	7,100	'---
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	36,676	6,569	10,440
Average	42,427	8,758	13,189

 

End

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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