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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 22, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – NTPC Ltd. is expected to report a year-on-year rise in both net profit and revenue for the June quarter, led by high power demand due to delay in the arrival of the monsoon, according to analysts.

 

NTPC is projected to report a net profit of over INR 51 billion for the reporting quarter, up nearly 7% on year, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. The lowest forecast for the electricity generating company's bottom line is over INR 41 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd., while the highest is over INR 69 billion by Axis Securities Ltd.

 

For the June quarter, NTPC is projected to report a top line of over INR 476 billion, up nearly 12% on year, according to the average of estimates. The projections range from over INR 422 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. to over INR 568 billion by Axis Securities. 

 

Compared to the trailing quarter, NPTC is expected to see its net profit fall nearly 42% but revenue rise over 10%.

 

"NTPC's standalone revenue is expected to remain flat, and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation to rise 5% year-on-year amid limited new capacity additions and lower thermal PLF (plant load factor)," Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said in a note. "Adjusted profit after tax is also expected to remain flat year-on-year."

 

Nuvama expects NTPC's net profit to grow 7% on year on the back of potentially higher incentives, and the plant load factor to be at 76% year-on-year in the standalone business as power demand during the quarter remained strong.

 

The June quarter normally sees a fall in electricity demand, as the monsoon season begins in mid-June and temperatures fall, and so does demand for irrigation. In 2026, the monsoon saw a delay across most parts of the country. Data released by the Central Electricity Authority show that electricity generation in India was up 6% on year in the June quarter, at 422.02 billion kilowatt-hours. For the month of June, it was 142.03 billion kilowatt-hours, 142.90 billion kilowatt-hours in May and 137.09 billion kilowatt-hours in April. JM Financial, in its note, said it expects generation for NTPC to increase 6% year-on-year.

 

NTPC is India's biggest power producer. The company catered to around a fourth of India's total power demand in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar) and has roughly 17% of India's installed capacity. NTPC generates and sells electricity from thermal, solar, hydroelectric, and wind energy sources. As of Sept. 30, NTPC had a total installed capacity of over 120 GW, which includes nearly 90 GW of operational capacity and nearly 34 GW of capacity under construction, comprising 16.5 GW of coal-based capacity, about 2.6 GW of hydel projects, and 15 GW of renewable energy. The company proposes to spend nearly INR 6.32 trillion by 2032 for capacity addition. In FY26, NTPC group added 4,738 megawatts of renewable capacity. For FY27, NTPC plans around 9,557 MW of capacity addition, including 1,017 MW of thermal, 250 MW of hydel and 8,237 MW of renewable power. This would rise to 10,039 MW in FY28.

 

NTPC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are estimated at over INR 128 billion, according to an average of estimates from eight brokerages. Estimates for EBITDA range from over INR 107 billion by Kotak Securities to over INR 163 billion by Axis Securities Ltd.

 

In the trailing quarter, NTPC reported a net profit of over INR 87 billion, up 51% on year and the highest in 46 quarters. The company received a tax write-back of INR 87.37 billion, which accounted for almost the entire net profit. Its revenue in the March quarter was at over INR 431 billion, down 2% on year. Its shares have lost around 10% since the company disclosed its March quarter earnings. NTPC is slated to announce its June quarter earnings on Friday. At 1403 IST, NTPC's shares traded at INR 350.25 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.5%. 

 

Of the 10 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 444. This is nearly 28% higher than current stock price of the company. The remaining one has a 'hold' call on the stock with a target price of INR 393.

 

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates for NTPC from eight broking firms in descending order of estimates of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Axis Securities Ltd.	568.36	69.62	163.33
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	497.90	60.76	150.96
Kotak Securities Ltd.	428.99	53.14	107.41
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	456.24	47.76	125.33
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	467.49	46.64	121.63
Bank of America Global Research	459.62	45.72	118.18
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	422.00	44.00	108.00
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	511.39	40.77	130.87
Average	476.50	51.05	128.22

 

End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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