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Informist, Monday, Jul. 20, 2026                                      Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Equity Alert: Axis Bank falls 6%; net interest margin contracts in Q1

MUMBAI--1128 IST--Shares of Axis Bank fell almost 6% to INR 1,249.10, their lowest level in over a month,  after the lender reported its earnings for the June quarter Saturday. Analysts were cautious given the contraction in the lender's net interest margin sequentially and on year. The bank's net profit was, however, higher than the consensus estimate. Brokerages retained their ratings on the stock.

Sustainability of loan book growth will be key to monitor for the bank, Ambit Institutional Equities said. For the quarter ended June, its net advances rose 19% on year to INR 12.6 trillion. Loan growth in the retail and agriculture segments was subdued, but is expected to pick up in the next few quarters, according to the brokerage. Ambit estimates the lender's loan book to rise around 17% at a compounded annual rate between 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) and FY29. Further, a surge in its unsecured retail loans could exert pressure on operating expenses in the coming quarters, the brokerage said, and hence estimated the bank's cost-to-assets at about 2.1% over FY27-28.

The bank's net interest margin fell by 16 basis points on quarter and 24 bps on year to 3.46% and this was owing to a wholesale-led loan mix, according to Ambit. "...superior growth trajectory is led by high-quality wholesale book which is expected to weigh on margins until retail growth accelerates," the brokerage said in its report. It reaffirmed its 'buy' stance on the stock with a slightly higher target price of INR 1,550, as compared to INR 1,500 earlier.

The fall in the bank's net interest margin suffered by 3 bps due to interest income reversals, 4 bps from shifts in its balance sheet, and 9 bps from loan repricing, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said. Its asset quality deteriorated only slightly. The bank's gross non-performing asset ratio was at 1.28% as of Jun. 30, higher than 1.23% a quarter ago. Its net NPA ratio as of Jun. 30 was 0.39%, marginally higher than 0.37% a quarter ago. Motilal Oswal revised its estimates for the private sector bank's net profit by 1.5% to INR 301.8 billion for FY27 and by over 2% to INR 374.6 billion for FY28. The brokerage maintained its 'neutral' call on the bank and has a target price of INR 1,500.

Axis Bank's margins are expected to improve in the second half of this financial year, Emkay Global Financial Services said. This is anticipated to be driven by lower funding and credit costs. The bank's return on assets is estimated to be 1.6-1.8% over FY27-29 from 1.4% in FY26, the brokerage said. Emkay Global retained its 'buy' call on Axis Bank with an unchanged target price of INR 1,600. The stock's valuation at a price-to-adjusted book value of 1.4 times based on FY28 earnings estimates is "cheap," the brokerage said.

The private sector lender's bottom line for the June quarter rose 22.5% on year to INR 71.14 billion, which was marginally higher than the INR 70.71 billion a quarter ago. During the quarter, the bank reported robust on-year growth of 8% in net interest income at INR 146.46 billion. At 1125 IST, shares of the bank were over 5% lower at INR 1,259.20 on the NSE. Its trading volumes on the bourse were over 15.5 million, over five times higher compared to the same time Friday. The stock was the top laggard in the Nifty 50 index.  (Ruchira Kagita)

Equity Alert: Indices pare losses; Nifty 50 bounces back above 24200 pts

MUMBAI--1050 IST--Indices pared some losses and the Nifty 50 bounced back above its crucial support of 24200 points one hour into trading. Shares of major private sector banks continued to fall. Select automobile stocks traded lower, while some state-owned banks and media companies gained. Broader market indices continued to gain and outperformed benchmark peers. The risk-off sentiment in the market was broadly higher, as indicated by a 3% increase in the India VIX. 

Traders sold shares of Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank, resulting in a fall of 3-5% in these. This was after the margins of these banks contracted sequentially in the June quarter. Axis Bank's management expects the margins to start recovering in the upcoming quarters and said this was the "cycle bottom" in Apr-Jun.

In case of Kotak Mahindra Bank, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities said, "While the management did not provide fresh NIM (net interest margin) guidance, it had earlier indicated that FY27 (2026-27 (Apr-Mar)) margins are likely to be lower than in FY26 due to elevated funding costs." The bank's management also said it anticipates a one-time impact of less than 2% of its net worth on transitioning to expected credit loss norms. 

HDFC Bank's June quarter earnings disappointed traders, primarily due to weaker-than-expected net interest margin when all the other metrics were more or less in line with expectations. "The medium term outlook remains positive, supported by improving credit growth, best-in-class asset quality and strong capital," IDBI Capital Markets & Securities. "AI-led productivity, branch maturation and gradual margin recovery should drive steady earnings growth," the report said.  

At 1029 IST, the Nifty 50 was at 24227 points, down 107.30 points, or 0.4%. The highest level the index hit so far Monday was 24262.35 points. The BSE Sensex was at 77699.56 points, down 451.89 points, or 0.6%.  (Gopika Balasubramanium)

Equity Alert: UltraTech Cement trades tad higher ahead of Apr-Jun results

MUMBAI--1048 IST--Shares of UltraTech Cement were higher ahead of the company's June quarter earnings later in the day. The company is expected to detail its results during market hours, possibly during the second half of the trading session, according to past trends. An increase in operating costs is expected to offset gains in sales for the company and slow down the bottom line growth. At 1045 IST, the stock was up 0.5% at INR 11,782 on the NSE.

The cement-maker's operating profit is expected to grow at a slower pace than its revenue due to the impact of higher rise in freight, packaging, and other input costs. The company is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 24.99 billion, up 10% on year, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The net profit estimates for the company range from a high of INR 27.45 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher to a low of INR 21.48 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. From the March quarter, the net profit is seen falling 17%.

UltraTech's consolidated revenue from operations for the quarter is estimated at INR 240.46 billion, up 13% on year and down 6.8% on quarter, as per the average of 12 estimates. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 245.50 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 231.91 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher.

Of the 17 brokerage reports on UltraTech Cement available with Informist, 15 recommend a "buy" with an average target price of INR 14,077 per share, which is nearly 20% higher than the current market price. Two have a "hold" call on the stock. (Gopika Balasubramanium)

Equity Alert: Indices open lower; major banks fall, RIL up marginally

MUMBAI--0940 IST--Benchmark stock indices opened lower on Monday, with traders aggressively selling shares of major private banks as their results for the June quarter were disappointing with contraction in their net interest margins. A sudden spike in crude oil prices also dampened traders' sentiment. The near-month futures contract of Brent crude oil was at around $90 a barrel Monday, as the conflict in West Asia continued to escalate. 

At 0936 IST, the Nifty 50 index was at 24189.80 points, down 144.50 points or 0.6%. The 50-stock index breached the intraday support of 24200 points within 20 minutes into trading. It has fallen as low as 24149.90 points so far. The BSE Sensex was at 77573.61, down 577.84 points or 0.7%. Broader market indices quickly recovered from the slight fall during open and were marginally higher now. 

Private banks such as Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were hit the hardest among Nifty 50 stocks. While some of them surpassed consensus estimates for June quarter net profit, contraction in margins led to negative sentiment around these stocks. The three banks traded over 3-5% lower. Meanwhile ICICI Bank, which did exceptionally well during the quarter, gave up initial gains and was marginally higher. 

InterGlobe Aviation fell around 2% at open amid a spike in crude oil prices. However, upstream oil companies such as Oil & Natural Gas Corp. and Oil India were 1-2% higher as they benefit from higher crude oil prices. Reliance Industries traded about 0.6% higher as the oil-to-chemicals major's net profit for Apr-Jun was better than expected, even as the metric fell 22% on year. (Gopika Balasubramanium)

Equity Alert: Analysts say long-term growth intact for HDFC Bk despite Q1 miss

MUMBAI--0905 IST--Though HDFC Bank's earnings for the June quarter broadly missed the Street's expectations, analysts remain constructive on the bank's long-term growth trajectory, given its portfolio mix, scope for lower funding costs and better operating leverage. A rise in foreign currency non-resident bank deposits is seen supporting the bank. Brokerages maintained their recommendations on the stock.

HDFC Bank continues to outpace the industry with around 15% on-year deposit growth, Ambit Institutional Equities said in a report. The lender's mobilisation is intact and will also be supported by FCNR(B) deposits, it said. Ambit maintained its 'buy' stance on the bank with a target price of INR 1,050. It in fact prefers it over ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, and Axis Bank. The brokerage does not see material funding risks for the lender and expects its deposits to grow 15% at a compounded annual rate between 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) and FY29.

Though the June quarter was relatively soft for the banking giant, it will be a key beneficiary of the ongoing mobilisation of FCNR(B) deposits and this will support its credit growth and margins in the future, Nuvama Institutional Equities said. The bank posted on-year credit growth of 15% while its margin narrowed 13 basis points to 3.4%. Its net profit of INR 190.60 billion missed the brokerage's estimate by 5%. HDFC Bank's strong franchise, robust capital, provision buffers, and "undemanding valuation" offer an attractive risk-reward, Nuvama said. The brokerage maintained its 'buy' call on the stock with a target price of INR 1,025 apiece.

The private bank's net interest margin remained the key miss, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said. The net interest margin for the June quarter had contracted 12 basis points on quarter to 3.26%. Its loan book was supported by small and medium enterprises and corporate segments, the brokerage noted. "...meaningful scope for improvement remains as INR400–500b of high cost borrowings mature over the next two years," the brokerage said. These high-cost borrowings maturing should lead to the bank's funding costs declining, according to Motilal Oswal. For now, the brokerage cut its earnings estimates for the bank by 2% for FY27 and FY28 by 2% each. It expects the bank's return on assets to be 1.84% in FY28 and return on equity to be 14.7%.  Motilal Oswal maintained its 'buy' recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 1,050.

India's largest private sector lender reported a net profit of INR 190.60 billion for Apr-Jun, compared to INR 181.55 billion a year ago. The figure missed analysts' estimate by over INR 2 billion. Its bank's total income fell over 7% to INR 921.84 billion in the June quarter. Friday, shares of the bank had closed over 1% up at INR 819.60 on the NSE.  (Ruchira Kagita)

Equity Alert: Brokerages retain 'buy' on Kotak Bk; lender's Q1 PAT beats view

MUMBAI--0855 IST--Several brokerages maintained their "buy" recommendation on Kotak Mahindra Bank after the lender's net profit for the June quarter surpassed analysts' estimates. For Apr-Jun, the private sector lender reported a 26% on-year jump in its net profit at INR 41.23 billion. The bank's net interest income rose to INR 79.28 billion from INR 72.59 billion in the year-ago period. However, the lender's margin fell to 4.53% from 4.67% in the March quarter.

Nuvama Institutional Equities increased its target price on the stock by over 2% to INR 1,765 and upgraded its recommendation on the stock to "buy" from "hold", citing reasonable valuation after the stock correction. The brokerage also raised its earnings estimates by 2–3% over financial year 2026–27 (Apr-Mar)-FY29 after the lender beat the June quarter expectations. The brokerage factored in a healthy return profile, foreseeing return on assets of 2% and return on equity of 12–13% over FY27–29. Any re-rating would depend on credible changes in the managing director and chief executive officer profiles, the brokerage said in its report.

ICICI Securities echoed a similar view, stating valuations have turned favourable following the recent correction in the stock. The brokerage retained its "buy" recommendation on the stock with an unchanged target price of INR 475. It foresees steady margins and stable asset quality, but underscored that deposit growth needs to pick up. For the June quarter, the lender's deposits came in at INR 5.73 trillion, broadly unchanged from a quarter ago. The brokerage also highlighted leadership transition, something to watch out for.

The lender's outlook remains favourable on the back of healthy loan growth, benign asset quality, and continued cost discipline, Nirmal Bang said in a research report. The brokerage expects these factors to support 2% return on assets trajectory and maintained a "buy" recommendation on the stock and raised the target price by nearly 5% to INR 475. Prabhudas Lilladher kept its target price unchanged at INR 480, retaining its "buy" recommendation on the stock, citing the possibility for better operating efficiency to sustain on the back continued investment in technology. (Shruti Nair)

Equity Alert: RIL Q1 oil-to-chemicals earnings beat view, brokerages positive

MUMBAI--0835 IST--Reliance Industries' earnings from its oil-to-chemicals operations in the June quarter beat analysts' expectations, even as the retail segment displayed a weak performance. The company's Jio vertical was largely in line with the Street's estimates. The company's net profit also beat consensus estimates. Brokerages maintained their ratings on the stock and several expect the company's oil-to-chemicals to drive near-term growth.

The June quarter reflects stronger middle-distillate cracks and firmer petrochemical spreads and these supported the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation in the oil-to-chemical vertical, Equirus Securities said. Its EBITDA per tonne rose 24% sequentially to about $115, the brokerage noted, higher than the $111 it had pencilled in. Reliance's Jio business "sustained its run," the brokerage said. Jio's average revenue per user had risen 1% on quarter to INR 216. Tariff hikes by the telecommunications player will be the next catalyst the brokerage will keep an eye out for, it said. However, the company's retail business was soft, with revenues in the segment increasing 7% on year and EBITDA falling to a 15-quarter low, Equirus said. The brokerage maintained its target price at INR 1,537 with a 'long' recommendation.

Reliance's June quarter earnings beat Emkay Global Financial Services' estimates, driven by earnings in the oil-to-chemicals and upstream divisions. "O2C (oil-to-chemical) benefited from elevated fuel cracks and downstream deltas," the brokerage said, adding that gains were partly offset by disruptions due to the West Asia war. The company's Jio business saw margin expansion, supported by operating leverage, Emkay Global said. The brokerage retained its earnings per share estimates for the company for 2027-28 (Apr-Mar) and FY29 while raising it for FY27 by 2% on strong oil-to-chemicals earnings. Emkay Global reaffirmed its 'buy' call with a target price of INR 1,680.

Weakness in the richly-valued retail diluted the beat in the company's EBITDA supported by the oil-to-chemicals business, Nuvama Institutional Equities said. The company's retail segment is valued at an enterprise multiple of 27, the broking firm said. The oil-to-chemical segment's EBITDA jumped over 17% on year to INR 170.10 billion. For the March quarter, the EBITDA was at about INR 145 billion. "O2C positioned to benefit from stronger refining cracks amid West Asia disruptions," the brokerage said. Nuvama maintained its 'buy' stance with an unchanged target price of INR 1,765.

For the June quarter, Reliance's consolidated net profit fell over 22% on year to INR 209.46 billion, but was above analysts' expectation of INR 190 billion. The company had reported a one-time income of INR 89.24 billion in the June quarter last year. Adjusting for the one-time income, its consolidated net profit for the reporting quarter rose nearly 16%. Its revenue rose over 25% on year to INR 3.12 trillion. Friday, shares of the company closed over 2% higher at INR 1,327.20.  (Ruchira Kagita)

Equity Alert: Mkt to open tad down; index heavyweights' Apr-Jun results eyed

MUMBAI--0832 IST--Traders are expected to react to the June quarter earnings of index heavyweights and the indices are seen moving in tandem with that. Over the weekend, about four banks and Reliance Industries, which together hold over 34% weightage in the Nifty 50, detailed their results. Traders may also factor in the fresh spike in crude oil prices to $90 a barrel, after the US attacked Iran for the second week since the former ended the truce. The July contract of GIFT NIFTY was sharply lower, indicating a negative open for the market. 

At 0724 IST, the July contract of GIFT NIFTY was at 24289.50, down 115 points or 0.5%. The 50-stock index Friday settled a percent higher 24334.30 points. The BSE Sensex closed at 78151.45 points, up 964.58 points or 1.3%. On Monday, sustenance above 24330 points is crucial and it is expected to be a muted open for Indian equities, Vipin Kumaar, assistant vice president – Globe Capital Market said. This level is expected to be breached in the near term, and the index is seen inching towards 24500-24550 points. If the 50-stock index falls below 24200 points, the index may be pushed back to move in a range, he added.

Meanwhile, foreign investors started to sell Indian stocks after making a brief comeback to the market in early July. They have been net sellers ever since the US ended the interim peace deal with Iran, and on Friday they sold domestic stocks worth INR 3.76 billion. Meanwhile, inflows from domestic investors helped the Indian market stay put, with them net buying for ninth session.  

On Saturday, major private banks such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Axis Bank declared their results. HDFC Bank's net profit for the quarter came in slightly below estimates and its net interest margin contracted 13 basis points on quarter to 3.4%. On the other hand, ICICI Bank's net profit for the quarter was better than expected and rose 16% on year. The private lender's NIM also improved on a sequential basis and was at 4.36%. The expansion in NIM was a positive surprise as the margin of its peers more or less contracted.

Others private banks such as Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis also reported higher-than-expected profits for the quarter under review. However, overall margins contracted for both the players. Kotak's management indicated that acquisition of Deutsche Bank's retail portfolio should be give return-on-equity accretive over time. Nuvama upgraded Kotak Mahindra Bank to 'buy' and increased target price to INR 460 as against Friday's close of INR 389.95. (Gopika Balasubramanium)

Equity Alert: Asian markets open mixed amid West Asia escalations

MUMBAI--0738 IST--Asian markets opened mixed Monday as the war in West Asia escalated as the US military began its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran Sunday. Japanese markets are closed Monday for Marine Day.

South Korea's Kospi opened 4% lower as index heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both opened almost 3% lower. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has invited market participants to a meeting Monday to collect opinions for policymaking to promote stable market stability, the official Securities Times reported.

State-owned China Reform Holdings Corp. has spent 50 billion yuan buying stocks to stabilise the market and will continue to increase equity holdings. The company said it "is unwaveringly confident in the outlook for China's capital markets, and will resolutely support tech innovation and high-quality growth of state-owned companies," according to Reuters. 

China's CSI opened almost 2% higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng opened 2% higher and was the best performer among its peers. China's stock market had tumbled more than 5% last week on concerns over liquidity among investors. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index traded almost flat. 

Following are the levels of key indices in the region at 0744 IST:

(Deesha Jadhav)

Equity Alert: US mkt closes down on AI sell-off despite good earnings season

MUMBAI--0700 IST--Major US indices closed lower Friday as the risk-off sentiment grew and took chips stocks down despite good corporate earnings for the second quarter so far. The West Asia war escalated as the US military began its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran on Sunday. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 1% and the S&P 500 also fell 1%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.4% as index heavyweights Nvidia and Alphabet Inc. closed 4.6% and 7.7% lower respectively. Shares of Netflix fell more than 7% after the company's earnings forecast for the June quater weighed on investor sentiment. 

So far, 49 of the S&P 500 companies have reported their earnings. Of these, 90% have delivered better-than-expected results, according to LSEG data. Analysts now see year-on-year S&P 500 aggregate earnings growth of 26.0%, up from the 19.2% expected in April. 

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped almost 9%. The semiconductors segment was hit hard after the Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveiled a new model which will narrow the gap with the top offerings in the US. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index is now down over 18% in July but is still up 65% year-to-date as compared to the S&P 500's nearly 9% gain over the same time.

Following are the closing levels of major US indices on Friday:

(Deesha Jadhav)

US$1 = INR 96.52

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

All prices from National Stock Exchange, unless otherwise specified.

All percentage changes for share prices are rounded off to the nearest whole number; percentage changes for index values are rounded off to one decimal place.

All times are Indian Standard Time.

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