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Informist, Saturday, Jul. 18, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – TVS Motor Co. Ltd. is expected to report year-on-year profit growth for the June quarter that will be the slowest in six quarters as the robust growth in wholesale sales is likely to be offset by higher commodity costs, according to brokerages. The company's top-line growth, however, is expected to continue the strong momentum registered in the preceding two quarters following price hikes and benefits from rapid depreciation of the rupee against the dollar.

 

The company's bottom line is expected to grow a shade over 30% on year to INR 10.13 billion for the quarter under review, according to the average of 16 estimates. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 10.71 billion from Nomura Equity Research and the lowest is INR 9.32 billion from Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

 

TVS Motor's revenue from operations is projected to rise 35% on year to INR 135.97 billion, according to the average of 16 estimates. The highest estimate for the company's net sales is INR 138.77 billion from Nomura and the lowest is INR 133.21 billion from Axis Securities Ltd.

 

"Standalone revenue is expected to grow around 33% YoY (year-on-year), driven by strong domestic and export demand, around 28% volume growth, improved product mix, recent price hikes, and favourable US$ movement," Nirmal Bang said in a report. Most analysts lauded wholesale sales of automobiles by TVS Motor in the June quarter.

 

The company sold 1.63 million vehicles across domestic and overseas markets in the period, up almost 28% on year. Its domestic sales grew 26% on year to 1.16 million units. Its exports grew faster, at 33%, to 468,354 units. This outperformance overseas is expected to benefit the company's top line because of the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the dollar in the June quarter.

 

The average selling price of TVS Motor's vehicles is forecast to improve around 7% on year because of higher sales of premium motorcycles, electric two-wheelers, and three-wheelers, Kotak Securities Ltd. said. Like its peers, the Chennai-based automaker also hiked prices of its products during this period, which is expected to further help its revenue growth, analysts said. TVS Motor's average realisation per vehicle for the June quarter is expected to be INR 82,890, around 5% higher on year, SMIFS Ltd. said.

 

TVS Motor is India's third-largest two-wheeler manufacturer, with a strong international presence across Africa, Latin America, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations region, and West Asia. Motorcycles account for about 45% of the company's vehicle sales in value terms, scooters around 40%, and three-wheelers roughly 3%.

 

TVS Motor managed to rake in additional retail market share in each month of the June quarter even as the leader Hero MotoCorp Ltd. lost share sharply. TVS Motor's market share in the two-wheeler market as of Jun. 30 stood at 19.65%, compared to 19.40% in June a year ago and 19.32% as of May 30. Its share in the three-wheeler market held steady at around 5.3% as of Jun. 30 after it saw sharp sales rise in the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), especially in the electric segment.

 

The company's scooter sales improved 36% on year, motorcycles 19%, and three-wheelers 48% in the quarter under review, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said. TVS Motor's Jupiter 110 and Jupiter 125 range of scooters has seen good traction in the market. TVS Motor expects scooters to retain growth momentum throughout FY27, its management told analysts in a post-earnings conference call in May.

 

During the March-quarter earnings call, the company had flagged concern over its economy scooter segment, where buyers are more sensitive to fuel price hikes. "EV (electric vehicles) will grow well, scooters will grow well. Premium and super premium will grow well. Then the challenge will be on the economy category and our proportion in that category is very small," the company had said. With fuel prices having risen multiple times since, investors will watch for the management's comments on demand when TVS Motor reports its June-quarter results Tuesday.

 

TVS Motor's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter is expected to rise 31% on year to INR 16.60 billion, according to the average of 14 estimates. The highest estimate for the company's EBITDA is INR 17.33 billion from Nomura; the lowest is INR 16.09 billion by Nirmal Bang.

 

Friday, shares of TVS Motor had closed at INR 3,618.20 each on the National Stock Exchange, up 1.5% from Thursday. The stock is up roughly 3% since the company reported its results for the March quarter on May 13.

 

Of the 14 research reports on the company available with Informist, 13 have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 4,177, which is around 15% higher than the closing price Friday. Only one brokerage has a "hold" recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 3,747.

 

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates, in INR billion, for TVS Motor Co. from 16 brokerages, in descending order of the net profit estimate:

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Nomura Equity Research	138.77	10.71	17.33
Axis Securities Ltd.	133.21	10.60	17.03
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	137.85	10.52	17.23
ICICI Securities Ltd.	137.18	10.43	16.74
Kotak Securities Ltd.	136.51	10.28	16.61
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	135.51	10.20	16.44
HDFC Securities Ltd.	135.44	10.16	--
Bank of America Global Research	137.74	10.15	16.58
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	134.50	10.13	16.41
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	135.84	10.11	16.44
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.	134.78	10.03	--
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	135.37	9.99	16.30
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	136.42	9.95	16.32
SMIFS Ltd.	135.16	9.83	16.35
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.	137.18	9.75	16.56
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.	.134.05	9.32	16.09
Average	135.97	10.13	16.60

 

End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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