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Informist, Saturday, Jul. 18, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI –Bajaj Auto Ltd. is expected to have started financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) with a bang, as its revenue growth for the June quarter is likely to be the highest in 20 quarters, according to brokerages. Analysts expect the Pune-based automotive giant's top line to get a boost from the strong growth in the company's wholesale sales in the reporting quarter, coupled with a slight increase in the average selling price of its vehicles. Its profit growth, while expected to be a touch slower than in the trailing quarter, is forecast to be among the strongest since the beginning of FY25.

 

The Rajiv Bajaj-led company's net profit is estimated at INR 27.89 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of estimates from 17 brokerages. If met, this would translate to 33% year-on-year profit growth for Bajaj Auto – the sharpest increase since the June quarter of FY24. The highest net profit estimate for Bajaj Auto is INR 28.90 billion from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. and the lowest is INR 26.68 billion from Asit C. Mehta Financial Services Ltd.

 

The company's revenue for the reporting quarter is estimated to grow 35% on year to INR 170.44 billion, according to the average of 17 estimates. The highest revenue estimate for the Chetak maker is INR 173.68 billion from Anand Rathi and the lowest is INR 167.49 billion from Axis Securities Ltd.

 

Growth in Bajaj Auto's earnings for the June quarter is expected to be primarily driven by strength in sales overseas. The company's wholesale sales in the June quarter stood at 1.44 million units, up 29% on year and 5% on quarter. Domestic sales grew 11% on year to 706,078 units, while exports surged 54% to 732,173 units.

 

The weak performance in India stood in sharp contrast to the company's strong overseas business, which provided two key benefits. First, it acted as a hedge against subdued domestic demand. Second, the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar during the reporting quarter resulted in favourable foreign exchange gains. Nearly 51% of the automobiles sold by Bajaj Auto in the June quarter were overseas, compared to roughly 43% a year ago.

 

Bajaj Auto's average selling prices also rose 3-4%, aided by favourable currency movements and price hikes implemented to offset higher input costs, according to Kotak Securities. The average selling price of the company's vehicles in the June quarter is estimated at INR 117,211, up around 4% on year, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said.

 

Bajaj Auto is among the country's leading automakers with a sizeable presence across two-wheelers and three-wheelers in India and overseas. Its two-wheeler brands include Pulsar, Dominar, KTM, Husqvarna, and Chetak. The company operates manufacturing facilities primarily in Maharashtra, along with one plant in Uttarakhand, and has a total installed annual capacity of 7.2 million units.

 

MARKET SHARE GAPS

During the quarter, Bajaj Auto gained market share in the motorcycle segment with engine capacity above 125 cubic centimetres, driven primarily by strong demand for its Pulsar range. The company also increased its share in the sports motorcycle segment, which comprises motorcycles with engine capacity exceeding 150cc.

 

"We expect our growth tempo to actually continue in Q1 basis the strong competitive positions we enjoy in the key segments like the 150cc-plus in domestic motorcycles, the EV business, both in 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers and the continued performance in large and stable territories like LatAm (Latin America) and parts of Asia," the company's management had told investors in a post-earnings conference call in May. Bajaj Auto has been working towards its targets through new product launches and brand development.

 

Despite gaining market share in select markets, the company's overall retail market share – in both two- and three-wheeler segments – saw some moderation at the end of June. Bajaj Auto's retail market share in the two-wheeler market stood at 10.29% as of Jun. 30, down from 10.72% as of May 30. In the three-wheeler market, it continues to hold the leadership spot, but its share dropped to 33.82% as of Jun. 30 from 35.06% a month ago.

 

MARGIN VIEW

Bajaj Auto's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to rise a little over 38% on year to INR 34.28 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of 15 estimates. The highest EBITDA estimate is INR 34.77 billion from Bank of America Global Research and the lowest is INR 33.16 billion from Asit C. Mehta.

 

The company's EBITDA margin for the reporting quarter is expected to take a knock due to inflationary pressure and lower presence of premium motorcycles in their sales mix locally. "We expect EBITDA margin at 19.5%, as higher raw material costs are only partly offset by price hikes, with operating leverage, a richer product mix and favourable FX providing partial support," Asit C. Mehta said. "Higher share of EVs in the quarter is likely to also have some impact on margins," the brokerage said.

 

"We are taking a very, very hard look at all costs that we are spending in this quarter and typical of really saying, is it really needed being very choiceful about all discretionary spends as it were," the company had told investors in May, as it explained how it was managing the rising costs. "The intention will be to try and see how do we bridge pretty much as much of the material inflation through a mix of the pricing that we have taken. I think next round of pricing will probably be the last of the recourses that we will take, if at all required, being very watchful of it," the company said.

 

Bajaj Auto will declare its financials for the June quarter Tuesday. On Friday, shares of the company closed at INR 10,443 on the National Stock Exchange, up 1% from Thursday. The stock is up 1.2% since the company reported its earnings for the March quarter on May 6.

 

Of the 18 research reports on the stock available with Informist, 13 have a "buy" recommendation, three have a hold recommendation, and two have a sell recommendation. The average target price for the 'buy' recommendation is INR 11,666, which is nearly 12% higher than the current market price.

 

The following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Bajaj Auto from 17 brokerages, in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd	173.68	28.90	0.00
Kotak Securities Ltd	169.03	28.51	34.71
Bank of America global research	170.62	28.36	34.77
Nomura Equity Research	170.50	28.35	34.77
YES Securities (India) Ltd	170.42	28.21	34.46
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	171.95	28.17	34.45
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	170.87	28.05	34.38
ICICI Securities Ltd	171.26	27.94	34.18
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	169.58	27.92	34.52
SMIFS Ltd	170.41	27.87	34.46
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd	173.50	27.78	34.29
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	171.54	27.69	34.31
Axis Securities Ltd	167.49	27.57	34.39
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	168.58	27.55	33.98
HDFC Securities Ltd	168.15	27.34	0.00
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	169.58	27.19	33.41
Asit C. Mehta Financial Services Ltd	170.25	26.68	33.16
Average	170.44	27.89	34.28

 

End

 

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

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