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Informist, Friday, Jul. 17, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has cut its 2026-27 global food grain production forecast to 2.422 billion tonnes from 2.426 billion tonnes projected in June. The downgrade reflects heatwave-related damage to maize crops in parts of Europe. The council has cut its projection for global foodgrain consumption by 1 million tonnes to 2.45 million tonnes. 

 

Despite the downward revisions, 2026-27 is expected to have the second-largest foodgrain production, after last year's record 2.490 billion tonnes, the council said in its July report. It has also cut its estimate on carry-forward stocks by 8 million tonnes to 610 million tonnes, factoring in lower opening stock and tight supplies.

 

However, the council raised global trade projections by 5 million tonnes to 450 million tonnes, driven by increased demand for maize imports. But it cautioned that its trade outlook is "far less certain" than a month ago amid intensified Russia-Ukraine hostilities that are disrupting export logistics, despite major Black Sea suppliers having a sizeable amount of grain available for trade. 

 

MAIZE

The maize production estimate for 2026-27 has been lowered by 4 million tonnes to 1.31 billion tonnes. However, the council has retained its estimate for production in 2025-26 at 1.34 billion tonnes. Maize consumption for 2026-27 is pegged lower at 1.32 billion tonnes from nearly 1.33 billion tonnes last month, and its trade estimate is raised by 4 million tonnes from last month to 205 million tonnes.

 

WHEAT

For 2026-27, the council has forecast global wheat production at 821 million tonnes, unchanged from last month. However, it has raised the consumption estimate by 1 million tonnes to 828 million tonnes. The forecast for carryover wheat stocks has been lowered by 1 million tonnes to 279 million tonnes.

 

For 2025-26, global wheat production is projected at 844 million tonnes, down from 845 million tonnes estimated last month. Wheat consumption is revised upwards by 1 million tonnes to 822 million tonnes, while carryover stocks are projected lower by 1 million tonnes to 285 million tonnes, the council said.

 

RICE

The council has projected 2026-27 global rice production at 543 million tonnes, down from 545 million tonnes seen last month, reflecting the downgraded outlooks for US and Asian growers. Rice consumption in 2026-27 is forecast to rise by 1 million tonnes to 544 million tonnes amid growing food demand in Asia and Africa. 

 

The projection for global trade in 2026-27 has been left unchanged at 62 million tonnes, with volumes shaped by import requirements in Asia and Africa, the council said. The council has forecast rice carry-over stocks at 195 million tonnes, down from 199 million tonnes projected a month ago. 

 

For 2025-26, global rice output is pegged at 546 million tonnes, unchanged from last month. The council has left its consumption and carry-over stock projections unchanged from June at 538 million tonnes and 197 million tonnes, respectively. However, it has raised its forecast for global trade to 60 million tonnes. End 

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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