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Informist, Friday, Jul. 17, 2026

By Rajesh Gajra

MUMBAI – An increase in operating costs is expected to offset revenue gains for UltraTech Cement Ltd. for the June quarter and drag down bottom line growth. Demand and volume both are expected to grow 7-10% for domestic cement companies in the June quarter, even after small price increases. UltraTech Cement is seen outperforming cement companies on both volume and revenue growth in the June quarter.

The company's operating profit is expected to grow at a lower pace than its revenue due to the impact of higher increase in freight, packaging, and other input costs. UltraTech is the largest cement manufacturer in the country with a domestic grey cement manufacturing capacity of 200.1 million tonnes per year and an overseas capacity of 5.4 million tonnes per year.

The company is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 24.99 billion, up 10% on year, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 27.45 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 21.48 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. Sequentially, the net profit is seen down 17%.

UltraTech's consolidated net sales for the quarter are estimated to be INR 240.46 billion, up 13% on year and down 6.8% on quarter, according to the average of 12 estimates. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 245.50 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 231.91 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher. The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 48.89 billion for the June quarter, up 6.5% on year but down 14% on quarter, according to the average of estimates.

If the average estimate of UltraTech's net profit for the June quarter comes out right, the growth will be the lowest in five quarters. The company had reported a net profit growth of 20% for the March quarter and 49% for the year-ago quarter. Net sales are expected to grow 13% on year, slightly higher than the 12% growth reported in the trailing quarter but similar to the growth in the year-ago quarter.

Brokerages estimate UltraTech will report a 10% on-year increase in blended volumes for the June quarter, but estimates on blended realisation growth vary. The company is likely to have raised prices across the country, according to Kotak Securities Ltd. The brokerage, along with Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., expects the company's blended realisation per tonne to be up around 3% on year. On the other hand, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. sees the company's blended realisation grow only 1% and Nomura Equity Research expects it to decline 2%.

Some brokerages expect UltraTech's EBITDA per tonne to fall in the June quarter due to the impact of higher operating cost. Axis Securities Ltd. expects the company's EBITDA per tonne to decline 3% on year due to operating costs per tonne rising 3%. Nuvama expects EBITDA per tonne to fall nearly 8% on year.

Kotak Securities said UltraTech would have likely faced "operating deleverage", apart from higher freight and packaging costs, in the June quarter. Operating deleverage for a cement company occurs when fixed costs, as a proportion of net sales, rise faster than revenues. UltraTech's bottom line is seen tracking its EBITDA growth.

The Aditya Birla group cement-maker will detail its June quarter earnings Monday. At 1150 IST, shares of UltraTech Cement traded at INR 11,712 apiece on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.5% from Thursday. The stock is down 2.5% since the March quarter earnings were announced by the company. 

Of the 17 brokerage reports on UltraTech Cement available with Informist, 15 have a "buy" call on the stock with an average target price of INR 14,077 per share, which is nearly 20% higher than the current market price. Two have a "hold" recommendation.

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates for UltraTech Cement from 12 brokerage firms in descending order of estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

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