More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Jul. 16, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – Reliance Industries Ltd. is expected to overcome all cost and logistical challenges arising out of the West Asian military conflict and announce an all-round improved net profit and revenue for the June quarter, with three major business verticals--oil-to-chemicals, retail, and digital--reporting year-on-year growth in their operating profits.

 

RIL's consolidated net profit for the June quarter is expected to rise nearly 5% on year to INR 190 billion, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The highest net profit estimate is INR 246 billion from Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 146 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. In the year-ago quarter, the company saw a one-off gain of INR 89 billion from the sale of stake in Asian Paints Ltd. Excluding this gain, the net profit of the company came in at INR 181 billion in the year-ago quarter.

 

The cost of crude oil, freight, insurance, and fuel were high in the reporting quarter owing to the military conflict in West Asia that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from Mar. 1. Though the US declared a ceasefire in early April, the strait could open up for shipping only from mid-June, when a memorandum of understanding was agreed upon for a 60-day opening of the Strait. This means RIL's consolidated net profit for the June quarter is likely to reflect the pressure of higher costs. On a trailing quarter basis, the net profit is expected to rise over 10%, as its overall expenses for the March quarter had jumped 20% year-on-year to INR 1.07 trillion, on higher cost of crude oil, freight, insurance, and fuel.

 

The company is expected to report consolidated revenue of INR 3.15 trillion for the June quarter, a jump of 29% year-on-year, according to the average of 12 estimates. On a trailing quarter basis, the revenue is likely to rise nearly 7%. The highest revenue estimate is INR 3.38 trillion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. and the lowest is INR 2.88 trillion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

 

RIL's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, excluding other income, is expected to rise 6.5% on year to over INR 457 billion for the June quarter. The highest EBITDA estimate is INR 491 billion from Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 427 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

GROWTH IN MOST SEGMENTS

The company's oil-to-chemicals business, which makes up 60% of the total revenue, is expected to report strong growth in earnings on better margins. Under the oil-to-chemicals business, crude oil is converted into petrochemicals and specialty materials, instead of producing transport fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

 

Kotak Institutional Equities expects the segment's EBITDA to rise around 12% both on year and sequentially. The brokerage said the segment is likely to benefit from strong earnings that had no impact of the windfall tax, US ethane-based petrochemicals used as raw materials, and a weaker rupee that could probably help RIL get more rupees for every dollar it earns. RIL's only-for-exports unit at Jamnagar, with a capacity of 35.2 million tonnes per annum, was exempt from special excise duty and additional special excise duty from Apr. 2. India had imposed export duties of INR 21.50 per litre on diesel and INR 29.50 per litre on aviation turbine fuel on Mar. 26, and exempted petrol exports from duties. RIL also operates another refinery with 33 million tonnes per annum capacity at Jamnagar to serve the domestic market.

 

Dolat Capital and Equirus expect RIL's oil-to-chemicals segment EBITDA to benefit from high gross refining margins, including $5.2 per barrel owing to non-imposition of windfall tax on exports from one of the two refineries RIL operates. The brokerage also sees a recovery in petrochemical margins, and a rise in refining volumes and recovering polymer spreads benefit RIL. Emkay sees the segment EBITDA up 2% on quarter at INR 148 billion. Gross refining margin is the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of the refined product. It is a key indicator for the pricing, profitability, and market health of refineries globally.

 

Published data across multiple media show the benchmark Singapore GRM for the June quarter at an average of $8-$9 per barrel, compared to $9-$10 per barrel in the March quarter, $7.5 per barrel in December, and $6.7 per barrel in June quarter a year ago. The Singapore GRM serves as the primary benchmark for refineries in Asia. RIL generally beats benchmark Singapore GRM, announcing a GRM of $9.8 per barrel in June quarter last financial year and $11.4 per barrel in the March quarter.

 

RIL's retail division is likely to see 4.0-5.6% on-year rise in EBITDA for the June quarter. This segment had contributed 30% to the total sales of the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate in the March quarter.

 

Analysts will be keen to watch how the company plans to invest its target of INR 300 billion over three years to set up integrated food parks across the country, and also achieve its goal of INR 1 trillion in revenues for Reliance Consumer Products Ltd. by 2030.

 

RIL's telecommunications business, housed under the 'Jio' brand, is expected to maintain strong growth on higher average revenue per user and net addition of subscribers during the quarter. As per Telecom Regulatory Authority of India data, Reliance Jio's wireless subscriber net additions for April and May totalled nearly 5.1 million users. As of March, the total subscriber base of Jio Platforms stood at 524.4 million.

 

Equirus and Emkay expect Jio's ARPU to either stay stable or rise no more than 1% year-on-year. Jio's ARPU in the March quarter was INR 214 per month and INR 208.8 in the June quarter last year. Dolat Capital has projected Jio's ARPU to reach INR 218, up 1.9% on quarter, with a net addition of about 8 million subscribers. Motilal Oswal sees net additions at 9.5 million subscribers. The brokerage expects the EBITDA of RIL's digital services segment to rise 13% on year to over INR 205 billion.

 

The EBITDA for the oil and gas exploration and production segment is expected to decline 11.3% on year to INR 39.6 billion in the June quarter, according to Kotak and Emkay. Emkay also expects a 5% sequential fall in EBITDA. The weakness is likely due to lower volumes from RIL's KG-D6 block. The segment's EBITDA for the year-ago quarter was INR 49.96 billion and the EBITDA margin was 81.9%. 

 

Other than operational updates and details on planned capital expenditure, management commentary on the forthcoming initial public offering of Jio Platforms Ltd. will be in focus. RIL had filed a draft red herring prospectus for the public issue of 270 million new shares of Jio Platforms with the Securities and Exchange Board of India on Jun. 19. Other factors on investors' mind will be progress on the planned migration of all Reliance Jio subscribers to 5G by 2030, the big bet on artificial intelligence, and end-to-end satellite broadband ecosystem from space to ground.

 

Reliance Industries will detail its June quarter earnings on Friday. On Thursday, shares of RIL closed almost flat at INR 1,296.60 apiece on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is down nearly 2% since the company reported its March quarter earnings on Apr. 24.

 

All 14 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist have a "buy" or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,691, which is nearly 30% higher than the current market price.

 

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Reliance Industries from 12 brokerages, in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA (excluding other income)
Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.	3,287.07	245.93	491.18
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.	3,280.27	223.49	471.12
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	2,986.91	198.52	427.06
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	3,094.04	197.31	471.37
Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.	3,156.66	190.13	467.53
Kotak Institutional Equities	3,219.02	190.04	465.10
Elara Securities Pvt. Ltd.	3,224.29	185.13	461.65
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	3,076.00	181.00	461.00
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	2,877.60	176.12	445.97
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	3,384.20	175.67	450.14
Nomura Equity Research	3,059.70	172.50	448.60
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	3,157.00	145.70	441.70
Average	3,138.41	187.10	457.39

 

End

US$1 = INR 96.35

 

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.