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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 15, 2026

 

MUMBAI – A strong El Nino event is likely to persist from August to January, with chances of the event at 99.8% during Aug-Oct, according to the APEC Climate Center's probabilistic El Nino-Southern Oscillation forecast. The climate centre sees an "enhanced" probability of below-normal rainfall over India from August to October, while a "tendency" for above-normal precipitation is likely over the country during Nov-Jan, it said in its monthly forecast report for Aug-Jan Wednesday.

 

The climate centre's El Nino-Southern Oscillation outlook is in the 'El Nino' alert, which is issued when such an event is nearly developed and expected to persist in the next three months. El Nino is probable with a 100% chance during the entire forecast period, the agency said. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies are expected along the equator from August to January, which is a clear indication of El Nino conditions. 

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation index is expected to be 2.61 degrees Celsius in August, and is likely to increase to 3.41 degrees Celsius by December, the centre said. For El Nino to emerge, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. This threshold must persist for at least five consecutive, overlapping three-month periods, and must be accompanied by corresponding changes in tropical atmospheric circulation.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

 

In Aug-Oct, there is a "strongly enhanced" probability of above-normal temperatures over the Indian subcontinent and Indian Ocean, the climate centre said. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal during Nov-Jan, it said. Above normal temperatures are mostly probable for most of the globe except for some parts of the south Pacific and northern Atlantic during the entire forecast period.

 

The climate centre's precipitation forecasts suggest below-normal rainfall over most parts of India during the southwest monsoon and the first month of the northeast monsoon season. Chances of above-normal showers increase for the rest of northeast monsoon and the first month of 2027.

 

India is likely to have below-normal rainfall in July as well, mainly due to persisting El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department said. In June, rainfall was nearly 40?low normal. Although El Nino conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the Southwest monsoon season ending September, some global models indicate the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive in the second half of the season, or Aug-Sept, the Indian weather department said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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