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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2026

By Diksha Singh

MUMBAI - Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. is expected to report strong numbers for the June quarter due to an increase in global product cracks, and despite a fall in its gross refining margins caused by elevated crude oil prices and higher costs due to the depreciation of the rupee.

The company is expected to report a standalone net profit between INR 3.6 billion and INR 13.84 billion, according to estimates from three brokerages. This will be a turnaround from the loss of INR 2.72 billion for the year-ago quarter and sharply higher than the net profit of INR 1.2 billion it had reported for the March quarter. The highest estimate for the company's June quarter net profit is INR 13.84 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 3.6 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

The net sales of the public-sector refiner are seen between INR 256.77 billion and INR 344.35 billion, according to the estimates. This is sharply higher than INR 173.6 billion reported for the year-ago quarter and INR 239.4 billion for the March quarter. The highest estimate for Mangalore Refinery's net sales is INR 344.35 billion by Elara and the lowest is INR 256.77 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd.

Mangalore Refinery's performance will be an outlier among sectoral peers. Almost all oil companies are expected to report a net loss for the June quarter due to the impact of high crude oil prices caused by the US-Iran war. The government had not raised pump prices of fuel till the middle of May.

While Mangalore Refinery is expected to report a net profit for the June quarter, other oil and gas companies are likely to report a cumulative net loss of INR 72.9 billion against a profit of INR 554.8 billion in the year-ago quarter, according to Prabhudas Lilladher. However, the brokerage did not specify the reasons behind the outperformance of Mangalore Refinery.

"Standalone refiners are expected to benefit from stronger product cracks; however, SAED (special additional excise duty) and capping of domestic refinery transfer prices (RTP) are likely to restrict improvement in earnings," the brokerage said. A product crack represents the difference between the price of a barrel of crude oil and that of a refined product. Higher cracks translate to better profitability for refiners processing crude into refined fuels.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter are expected in a range of INR 10.9 billion and INR 23.29 billion. The highest estimate is INR 23.29 billion from Elara Securities and the lowest estimate is INR 10.9 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher.

Crude oil prices had risen to an average $104 per barrel in Apr-May, and then fell sharply to below $90 a barrel after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in June. As a consequence of the war, the company's gross refining margin is expected to fall to $6.5 per barrel for the June quarter from $11.2 per barrel for the March quarter, the brokerage said.

Mangalore Refinery will announce its June quarter earnings Wednesday. Key points to monitor will be the normalisation of crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply, Elara said. "Product cracks still near historical high levels will be the key to watch for refiners," the brokerage said.

At 1009 IST, shares of MRPL traded at INR 161.2 per share on the National Stock Exchange, down 2% from Monday. The stock has fallen over 13% since the company reported its March quarter earnings on Apr. 24.

Of the three brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, one has a "buy" recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 214 per share, which is 33% higher than the current market price. One brokerage has a "hold" call with a target price of INR 192 and one has a "sell" recommendation with a target price of INR 143.

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals from three brokerages, in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

End

US$1 = INR 96.14

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

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