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Informist, Monday, Jul. 13, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – Amid fresh escalation of tensions in West Asia and crude oil prices climbing back to elevated levels, some analysts are awaiting further news flow to determine the market's direction. However, others are focused on June-quarter corporate results and expect the market rally to continue. Brent crude prices, which rose more than 3% from their previous close, are likely to dampen market sentiment.

 

"... with the news that oil tankers continue to traverse the Strait of Hormuz is good news," Alok Churiwala, managing director at Churiwala Securities, said. "This has also kept the crude prices in check, at levels that are palatable. For the time being, unless there is large-scale reescalation, prices should be range-bound between 79-85 ($79-85 per barrel)," he said.

 

At 1623 IST, the September Brent crude futures contract was 3.2% higher at $78.42 per barrel. Oil prices are nearly 8% higher than their pre-war levels.

 

On Monday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24211.00, up 4.10 points from Friday's close. The BSE Sensex settled at 77616.40, up 47.01 points or 0.1% from its previous close. "Markets started the day on a negative note but recovered from the lows, hinting at a buying interest on any dips in spite of all geopolitical news flows," Ruchit Jain, head of technical research at Motilal Oswal, said. He expects a further rally and sees the Nifty 50 facing resistance at 24500-24600 levels and finding support around the 24000 level.

 

"However, the market would look forward to the earnings season that would give a clearer picture about the profitability of the companies along with their management views," Vikram Kasat, head advisory at PL Capital, said in a note. "Going ahead, factors such as the outcome of the earnings season, trend in crude oil prices, macroeconomic trends abroad and foreign fund flow would play a role."

 

Though the renewed escalation in West Asia is likely to fuel near-term volatility, global investment bank Goldman Sachs expects the Nifty 50 to recover towards its June 2027 target of 26500 points. This would represent a 10% upside from the benchmark index's current levels, following a 9% drag in the first half.

 

Goldman Sachs also sees enough room for foreign flows to return to the Indian equity market, with ultra-light foreign positioning. While the continued earnings downgrade cycle and a less attractive growth-valuation mix in the Indian market when compared with other markets remain a major investor concern, "improving visibility on domestic recovery will act as a catalyst for investors to start pricing in the anticipated recovery in advance," Goldman Sachs said.

 

According to Churiwala, it looks unlikely that foreign institutional investors will return in a hurry. "The AI (artificial intelligence) trade, which was an underlying theme, also seems to have lost some steam, but despite that, the flows seem tepid," he said. "Indian valuations are not expensive but can't be called a bargain either. So until we exceed expectations on income and growth, the flows are likely to be weak."

 

Friday, foreign institutional investors net bought equity shares of INR 26.04 billion, while domestic investors bought shares worth INR 20.20 billion. Foreign investors have been net buyers for some sessions, except for Thursday.

 

"FII flows will remain another key factor, as recent improvement in foreign inflows has helped cushion the rupee's downside," Jateen Trivedi, vice president and commodity and currency research analyst at LKP Securities, said in a note. "If Brent crude fails to sustain above the $80–82 per barrel zone, it could provide support to the rupee and limit further depreciation." Monday, the Indian unit ended at 95.6200 a dollar.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.6200

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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