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Informist, Monday, Jul. 13, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to transition into positive conditions in July, though the index is likely to only be marginally above the positive Indian Ocean Dipole threshold, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. The chances of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event will continue rising to over 90% by September, the weather agency said. 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. Though a positive Indian Ocean Dipole can negate some impact of the El Nino event, it cannot always ensure better rainfall during the monsoon. The impact of an El Nino event is typically more powerful than that of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

 

The forecasts of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole come amid strengthening of El Nino over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The equatorial sea surface temperatures are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, the weather agency said. The atmospheric circulation is firmly aligned with consistent El Nino conditions, and they are expected to strengthen further during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which spans from December to February.  

 

Climate models indicate a stagnant pattern of the Madden-Julien Oscillation over the western Pacific Ocean, the weather agency said. This persistent pattern will favour continued chances of tropical cyclone development over the east and west Pacific regions. The pattern is likely to see a reduction in amplitude during the last week of July, and is unlikely to offer any support for the development of weather systems in the Bay of Bengal, the agency said. 

 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a massive, eastward-moving "pulse" of clouds, rainfall, and atmospheric pressure that circles the global tropics every 30–60 days. It plays a crucial role in regulating the Southwest monsoon by alternating between active phases that trigger heavy rains and suppressed phases that cause dry spells. 

 

The super typhoon "Bavi" over the western Pacific Ocean moved past the Philippines and Taiwan and struck the southeast coast of China in the last few days, the weather department said. Earlier, this typhoon had diverted the monsoon flow and restricted the formation of fresh weather systems over the Bay of Bengal. With the weakening of the typhoon, a fresh low-pressure area could form over the north Bay of Bengal this week, the agency said. 

 

The India Meteorological Department, in its daily forecast on Sunday, said rainfall is likely to remain subdued over northwest, west, central, and south peninsula India during the next six to seven days. The Indian weather department has forecast July rainfall at 94% of the long period average, which is below normal.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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