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Informist, Monday, Jul. 13, 2026

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – India's headline indices are expected to open sharply lower amid renewed escalation in the West Asia war and a rise in crude oil prices. Last week, analysts had said that if the situation in West Asia worsens, there may be a decline of up to 3-4% in the benchmark indices. Over the weekend, Iran ordered to close the Strait of Hormuz, straining the transit of shipments through the route and also targetted Gulf nations. In a response to Tehran's aggression, the US launched fresh trikes against Iran early Monday. Following this, other Asian indices have been lower since open.   

"Iran's strikes on US military bases and assets stationed in the southern Persian Gulf constitute a legitimate and lawful exercise of its inherent right to self-defense under international law," Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesperson of Iranian foreign affairs ministry said in an X post. With such escalations in the West Asia, the crude oil prices have risen sharply; however, they stayed below $80 a barrel. At 0759 IST, the near month futures contract of Brent crude oil traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rose over 3% to $79.27 a barrel. 

Analysts expect the indices to see bouts of volatility and sharp intraday movement in the near term, given the widening of the conflict between both the countries. Some fund managers do not see a sharp rise in the index, unless US and Iran arrive at a deal and put an end to their hostilities and expect the indices to consolidate in the near term. A spike in crude oil prices is a big worry for India as it exports a majority of its consumption requirement. 

In the near term, the market is expected to consolidate and there is a reflection of diffidence and indecisiveness among investors, analysts said. "A break on either side of the 23800–24600 range will trigger the next short-term directional move, hence, we suggest that traders adopt a stock-specific trading approach for the time being," Vipin Kumaar, assistant vice president – Globe Capital Market, said.

At 0737 IST, the July contract of GIFT NIFTY was at 24042.50, down 158 points or 0.7%. This was over 200 points lower than than the Nifty 50's close level on Friday. The index had settled at 24206.90 points, up by 244.10 points or 1%. The index closed higher for the second straight session but has not recouped losses it made after US President Donald Trump ended the peace deal with Iran.

Major support for the Nifty 50 remains at 23000 points for the near-term, but any breach of 23750 points would be lead the Nifty 50 to consolidate, Chola Securties said in a note. Intraday resistance is around 24500 points and support at 24000 points, the broking firm said.

The sentiment of foreign investors towards Indian equities have improved quite well in the recent times. They were net buyers for five out of eight trading sessions so far in July. This was after weeks of them offloading the Indian shares. Domestic investors continued to be bullish on Indian market, with them buying a little over INR 20 billion on Friday. 

In the US, late Friday, indices closed in the positive territory. Meanwhile in Asia, all the indices fell sharply at open, expcept for Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which was 1% higher. South Korea's Kospi fell over 5% early Monday after SK Hynix falls over 10% in the session. This comes after the chipmaker's strong debut on the Nasdaq Friday and as investors cashed profits and weighed whether surging demand for artificial intelligence memory chips justified the stock's lofty run, CNBC reported. End

US$1 = INR 95.32

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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