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EquityWireOil Stocks Outlook: Seen consolidating amid weak Q1 outlook for OMCs
Oil Stocks Outlook

Seen consolidating amid weak Q1 outlook for OMCs

This story was originally published at 17:50 IST on 10 July 2026
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Informist, Friday, Jul. 10, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Shares of oil and gas companies are expected to consolidate in the near term as investors turn their focus to June-quarter earnings. Most brokerage estimates suggest oil marketing companies are likely to report a weak quarter, as elevated crude oil prices amid the war in West Asia weighed on their performance. 

 

In the week ended Friday, Nifty Oil & Gas rose 0.4%, outperforming benchmark indices. On Friday, Nifty Oil & Gas ended 1.3% higher at 11177.45. Barring Aegis Logistics, which ended nearly 1% lower, all the other constituents ended higher. Chennai Petroleum Corp. was the top gainer in the sectoral index, up over 5%. Adani Total Gas, Aegis Vopak Terminals, Reliance Industries, and GAIL closed 2-3% higher.   

 

"The Nifty Oil & Gas index has been going through a consolidation phase in the 11350–10950 spot zone," Vipin Kumaar, assistant vice president, research at Globe Capital Market, said. A breakout on either side of this range will trigger the next short-term directional move, Kumaar added.

 

Oil marketing companies are expected to incur a loss before tax of around INR 620 billion in the June quarter, driven by higher crude oil prices, Kotak Institutional Equities said in a report. Meanwhile, upstream companies are expected to benefit from high energy prices and strong year-on-year growth in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, the brokerage said. 

 

"Led by elevated benchmark prices, premiums, logistic costs, weak INR and delayed retail price rise, OMCs reported large losses in April-May," Kotak said. However, with retail fuel rate hikes and a sharp decline in crude oil prices, things have changed dramatically for downstream companies. Kotak said as of now, the margins of these companies are back to normal levels. "While reported GRM (gross refining margin) will look elevated, there will be losses in marketing," Kotak said.

 

On the other hand, EBITDA is expected to rise 66% on year of Oil and Natural Gas Corp. and 98% on year for Oil India, Kotak said. Volumes of ONGC may disappoint, but net oil realisation is expected to rise to $75 per barrel, up 53% on year, the brokerage added.

 

Shares of oil marketing companies – Hindustan Petroleum Corp., Indian Oil Corp., and Bharat Petroleum Corp. – ended 0.5-1.0% higher on Friday, while shares of oil explorers – ONGC and Oil India – ended 0.5% higher each. 

  

TOP HEADLINES

 

* ONGC board approves 1.75 mln tn petroleum reserves development in Mangalore
* US crude oil stocks up 3 mln bbl in week ended Fri, exports down, says EIA
* Crude oil prices hit 2-wk high after Trump says ceasefire with Iran is over
* Crude oil prices jump after Trump says ceasefire with Iran is over
* Brent crude oil prices to average $74/bbl in Jul-Sept, $65/bbl in 2027 - EIA
* HPCL board appoints Srividya Venkataraman as CFO effective Tue
* PRESS: Govt pushes back plans to launch E25 amid backlash
* Govt lifts curbs on natural gas use as LNG shipment via Hormuz strait resumes
 

Following are the resistance and support levels for key oil stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

 

Company Price Week-on-week
 change in % 
Resistance Support
Bharat Petroleum Corp 309.75                           0.50 315.50 306.20
Hindustan Petroleum Corp 395.30  (-)1.00 400.60 391.80
Indian Oil Corp 138.96  (-)1.80 141.30 137.60
Oil & Natural Gas Corp 244.96                           3.00 246.60 242.60
Oil India 424.95                           0.70 429.10 418.70
Reliance Industries 1307.80                           0.30 1325.50 1278.90
Index  Levels       
NIFTY OIL & GAS 11177.45 0.40 11264.60 11050.90
Nifty 50 24206.90 (-)0.30 24293.30 24077.10
S&P BSE Sensex 77569.39 (-)0.30 77832.40 77189.10

 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.32

 

Reported by Adhithya Aji

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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