Apr-Jun Outlook
Kotak Equities sees Nifty 50 cos PAT rising 10% in Q1; sharp fall in oil cos PAT
This story was originally published at 12:45 IST on 8 July 2026
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MUMBAI – Broking firm Kotak Institutional Equities sees the aggregate net profit of the Nifty 50 companies rising nearly 10% on year in the June quarter and that of BSE Sensex constituents rising 4.8%. According to the brokerage's strategy report, the earnings-per-share for the Nifty 50 index is expected at INR 1,244 for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) and at INR 1,426 for FY28.
Excluding oil marketing companies, all others under the coverage are expected to post an on-year aggregate growth of 14.6% in net income for Apr-Jun, the brokerage said in the report. This is likely to be driven majorly by capital goods companies, with strong demand conditions for most sub-sectors, but with diverse trends of profitability across companies.
A healthy growth, stable asset quality, and net interest margin expansion of financial stocks are also expected to support the net income growth in the June quarter. Metals and mining stocks, with elevated commodity prices, and the higher average revenue per user in the telecommunication services sector are also likely to contribute to the net income growth.
"On an overall basis, we expect net income of the KIE universe to decline 8.7% yoy (on year) in 1QFY27(Apr-Jun) due to a sharp decline in the profits of OMCs (oil marketing companies) from marketing and inventory losses amid crude price volatility," Kotak said in its report. Construction materials, pharmaceuticals, and transportation sectors are the others apart from oil marketing companies, which are seen reporting an on-year decline in net income.
Regarding oil marketing companies, Kotak expects them to report a combined profit before tax loss of INR 620 billion in the June quarter. "Driven by elevated crude prices and limited relief, OMCs (oil marketing companies) had large losses in April-May," Kotak said. "With retail price hikes in end-May and a sharp declines in oil prices, things dramatically turned around in June, and supernormal margins are back again."
"Provisional numbers suggest solid performance on loan growth across banks," Kotak said in its report. The asset quality of banks is holding up well across banks and products, with no discernible impact from the ongoing West Asia crisis.
In the capital goods space, the brokerage expects healthy but diverging growth across the electricals and transmission and distribution pack, with margin outcomes driven more by company-specific mix rather than any common commodity overhang.
Meanwhile, margins of steel companies are seen increasing by around INR 1,500 per tonne on an average in the June quarter due to elevated prices for flat products during the quarter. This is partially offset by higher coking coal costs and seasonal weakness in rebar prices, the brokerage said. "We expect an overall positive quarter for base metal players due to elevated commodity prices in 1QFY27E," it said. End
Reported by Arundathi A R
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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