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Informist, Friday, Jul. 3, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Shares of metal companies, both ferrous and non-ferrous, are expected to consolidate in the near term, analysts said. Steel companies are likely to be under pressure as the onset of the monsoon has started to hurt demand and prices while non-ferrous companies could be weighed down by the significant drop in aluminium prices, they said. 

 

"...the outlook (for ferrous) is a little skewed towards the negative side because now you are entering the monsoon season... so, your demand usually tends to fall and so will the volumes," an analyst at a domestic brokerage said. He added that shares of non-ferrous companies will not rise materially till prices of aluminium stabilise. "We believe that at one point, once the prices stabilise, then so will the volatility in the stocks," the analyst said.

 

He expects aluminium prices to stabilise around $2,900-$3,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange. "Probably then aluminium can start picking up again," he said. Price of the metal has plunged around 14% since the US-Iran peace deal was announced. At 1647 IST, the three-month aluminium futures on the LME traded 0.1% lower at $3,087 per tonne.

 

Steel companies such as Jindal Steel and Steel Authority of India, which have higher exposure to long products, could face additional pressure as prices have fallen sharply in the rebar segment, Tushar Chaudhuri, lead research analyst at brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher, said. Prices of long steel products fell to INR 51,000 per tonne this week from around INR 58,000 per tonne in the second week of April, Chaudhuri said.

 

However, he remains more positive on ferrous metal companies than on non-ferrous. Chaudhuri expects steel companies to post "good" earnings for the June quarter owing to earlier price hikes. Brokerage Nomura said earlier in the week that the price increases taken towards the end of the March quarter and through the June quarter are "more than sufficient" to absorb any cost inflation rising from the West Asia war in the near term.

 

Chaudhuri said that despite the recent correction in shares of non-ferrous companies, there is scope for some more due to the ongoing strengthening of the dollar. Aluminium prices are under additional pressure after Emirates Global Aluminium said "strong early progress" has been made in the restoration of production at its Al Taweelah plant, with key early milestones reached ahead of schedule. The site had sustained significant damage on Mar. 28 when Iranian attacks on the Khalifa Economic Zone in Abu Dhabi had led to an emergency shutdown.

 

This has led to analysts revisiting the deficit outlook for the global aluminium market for the year as supply could come into the market quicker than expected. "What was modelled as 18-24 months of 1.6mt (million tonne) capacity offline at Al Taweelah is now being revised toward 6-9 months, or possibly shorter," Nirmal Bang Securities said in a report. The brokerage has revised downwards the cumulative supply loss from the Gulf Cooperation Council to around 1-1.5 million tonnes from 2.43 million tonnes earlier. This was done as Dubai Aluminium continues to operate at full capacity while Aluminium Bahrain is on the road to recovery.

 

The Nifty Metal Friday closed at 12598.45 points, up 94.55 points or 0.8%. National Aluminium Co. and Vedanta were the top performers among the index constituents, ending 4.6% and 1.6% higher, respectively. Welspun Corp. and Lloyds Metals and Energy were the underperformers. The support level for the Nifty Metal index is seen at 12400 points and resistance at 13200 points, according to Jatin Gedia, senior vice-president, technical research, at Teji Mandi Investment Technologies.

 

TOP HEADLINES

* Shyam Metalics board to mull raising funds via equity, debt on Jul 20
* Netherlands ops EBITDA to reach 400-500 mln euros FY27 - Tata Steel
* Vedanta to provide INR 16.24-bln corporate guarantee for arm Ferro Alloys
* NCLT approves merger of three wholly-owned subsidiaries of JSW Steel with co
* Tata Steel ferro alloy segment exports bypass its own mills in Europe
* Operating environment in Netherlands challenging, says Tata Steel chairman
* Hind Zinc Apr-Jun mined metal output up 1% YoY at 268,000 tn
* Delhi HC allows Vedanta plea to enforce $64 mln arbitral awards against govt
* Lloyds Metals Apr-Jun iron ore production 6.05 mln tn, up 53% on year
* APL Apollo Apr-Jun sales volume falls 6% YoY to 744,823 tn, UAE sales dn 46%
* Cut in tariff-free EU quotas likely to impact Tata Steel UK ops, says CEO
* CARE ups rating on Jindal Steel's long-term bank facilities to AA+ from AA
* EU slashes annual tariff-free import quota for steel pdts 47% to 18.3 mln tn
* JFE Steel buys 25% stake in JV with JSW Steel for INR 79 bln, now holds 50%
* Tata Steel UK shifts focus to Llanwern plant to deal with Talbot output loss
* Hindustan Zinc aims to double capacity over time, says Chairperson Hebbar
* Hind Zinc executes pact with UP govt to explore Nawatola rare earths block
* APL Apollo to divest entire stake in arm Blue Ocean Projects for INR 1.60 bln
* Fitch Ratings assigns 'BB' to proposed senior notes of Vedanta Resources
* Hindustan Zinc deploys 250 tn electric crane at Rajasthan plant

 

Following are the resistance and support levels for key metal stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

 

Company	Price	Week-on-week change in %	Resistance	Support
Hindalco Industries	953.20	-	988.90	933.20
Hindustan Copper	499.20	1.60	517.10	489.10
Hindustan Zinc	536.55	3.60	548.60	529.00
Jindal Steel	1,054.00	(-)0.50	1,082.40	1,036.80
JSW Steel	1,230.20	(-)0.10	1,252.90	1,214.70
Jindal Stainless	698.15	0.50	720.40	680.40
National Aluminium Co.	347.60	4.70	355.50	334.90
NMDC	85.40	0.50	87.50	84.20
Steel Authority of India	169.88	(-)0.50	175.00	165.60
Tata Steel	189.80	0.60	194.50	186.80
Vedanta	280.40	2.50	284.70	276.70
Index	Level
Nifty Metal	12598.45	1.20	12807.00	12473.60
Nifty 50	24270.85	0.90	24426.30	24174.70
BSE Sensex	77763.91	0.90	78324.70	77429.60

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.2100

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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