Oil Stocks Outlook
Seen range-bound on lack of immediate trigger
This story was originally published at 22:04 IST on 3 July 2026
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MUMBAI – The stocks in the Nifty Oil & Gas index are expected to remain range-bound in the absence of an immediate trigger. Crude oil prices have normalised to pre-war levels. Analysts are of the view that the June quarter earnings of oil marketing companies will be weak because of only partial reversal of under-recovery losses.
Monday, Nifty Oil & Gas ended marginally higher at 11136.20 points. The resistance for the sectoral index is seen at 11350 points while the support is expected at 11000 points, according to Jatin Gedia, senior vice-president, technical research, at Teji Mandi Investment Technologies. Gedia expects a further upward move once the sectoral index breaches the resistance level.
Six stocks in the 15-stock index ended higher Friday. Aegis Vopak Terminal was the top gainer, ending nearly 10% higher from Thursday. Upstream companies Oil and Natural Gas Corp. and Oil India ended nearly 1% and 0.5% higher, respectively. Adani Total Gas and Mahanagar Gas were the worst-hit stocks in the index, down nearly 2% and 1%, respectively.
Brent crude oil price has dipped to around $72 per barrel and flows through the Strait of Hormuz have picked up to around 20 million barrels per day. On the back of easing crude oil price, oil marketing companies are expected to reverse retail fuel under-recovery of around INR 650 billion in five months and a total of INR 900 billion in seven months, including under-recovery on liquefied petroleum gas, JM Financial said.
"Reversal of excise duty cuts is the key risk to this above-normal margin sustaining, given pressure on the government of India's finances due to the jump in fertiliser and LPG subsidy...," the brokerage said. JM Financial also said it does not expect the government to lower retail fuel prices in the near term.
The brokerage has trimmed the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of downstream companies for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) by 9–20%. This is because of the partial reversal of under-recovery losses in the June quarter. The brokerage maintained a "reduce" call on stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Indian Oil Corp.
Shares of Indian Oil Corp. closed marginally lower while shares of Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. ended 0.7% and 0.1% lower, respectively.
TOP HEADLINES
* Bharat Petroleum Corp arm buys 39% more stake in IBV Brasil for INR 23 bln
* Retail fuel price cut hinges on where crude stays sustainably: Oil minister
* EIA says US crude oil stocks down 3.8 mln bbl in week ended Fri, exports dn
* IOC cuts 19 kg LPG cylinder price by INR 183.5 to INR 2,930 in Delhi
* BPCL secures allocation of 100 MW in state-owned power co's tender
* Govt cuts windfall gains tax on diesel, ATF exports; hikes on petrol exports
* Govt cuts domestic natural gas price by 20% on month to $8.73/mBtu in July
* Crude oil price crash premature, supply to remain tight much longer, says ING
* Oil India to enhance authorised share capital to INR 50 bln from INR 20 bln
* Govt lifts curbs on sale of bulk petrol, diesel at retail outlets from Wed
* India Ratings assigns 'AAA' to IOC's long-term bank facilities
* BPCL to buy 40% stake in Shell Gas JV to tap India value-added bitumen mkt
* Govt removes sectoral curbs on supply of non-domestic packed LPG supplies
* ONGC, bp in pact to enhance production at fields in western offshore basin
Following are the resistance and support levels for key oil stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-week change in % |
Resistance | Support |
| Bharat Petroleum Corp. | 308.15 | (-)0.50 | 316.40 | 302.60 |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corp. | 399.25 | (-)2.40 | 404.70 | 394.80 |
| Indian Oil Corp. | 141.56 | (-)1.60 | 142.90 | 140.30 |
| Oil & Natural Gas Corp. | 237.84 | 2.00 | 241.30 | 234.60 |
| Oil India | 422.10 | 3.80 | 432.20 | 412.70 |
| Reliance Industries | 1,304.00 | (-)1.10 | 1,316.00 | 1,296.00 |
| Index | Level | |||
| NIFTY OIL & GAS | 11136.20 | (-)0.10 | 11222.00 | 11076.60 |
| Nifty 50 | 24270.85 | 0.90 | 24426.30 | 24174.70 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 77763.91 | 0.90 | 78324.70 | 77429.60 |
End
US$1 = INR 95.21
Reported by Adhithya Aji
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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