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Informist, Friday, Jul. 3, 2026                                      Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

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Equity Alert: Indices seen opening higher, crude hovers around $72/barrel

 

MUMBAI--0815 IST--Headline indices are likely to open higher Friday, ending the week on a positive note, as crude oil prices continued to hover around $72 per barrel level as transit through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, easing concerns about supply disruptions. At 0810 IST, the September futures contract of Brent Crude was at $72.06 per barrel, up 0.4% from the previous close. 

 

While US-Iran negotiations remais fragile and disputes over Strait of Hormuz administration and transit fees persist, the memorandum of understanding is expected to hold and turn into a deal over the coming months, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing analysts at Citi Research. "Shipping flows (through the Strait) are normalising," the analysts said. Crude oil prices have seen a sharp reversal from the $122.5 per barrel level seen at the height of the West Asia war with Gulf countries ramping up production and supplies after the preliminary agreement was signed between the US and Iran in mid-June. 

 

For most of this week, exports from Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the region, have remained at 90% of pre-war levels and most of its tankers have gone through the Strait of Hormuz, CNBC-TV18 reported. Meanwhile, Iran's military command issued a stark warning to oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, instructing them to adhere to its designated route or risk facing a "forceful response," according to reports. 

 

US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were continuing and claimed Tehran had "agreed to just about everything we need." However, according to areport by The Wall Street Journal, US negotiators have proposed unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian funds held overseas in exchange for Iran dropping its claim over oversight of the Strait of Hormuz and demand for toll payments from ships using the route. Iran, however, has reportedly shown little willingness to compromise on those demands, according to the report. 

 

In a separate development, Russia launched its largest-ever drone and missile barrage on Ukraine's capital Kyiv late Wednesday. Following this, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Thursday said his forces would "definitely" retaliate for the overnight pummelling of the capital city, The Guardian reported. Meanwhile, Russia vowed to further ramp up the "pressure" on Kyiv. 

 

The July futures contract of the Gift Nifty indicates that the domestic market may open higher. At 0755 IST, the futures contract was at 24414.50, around 239 points above the Nifty 50's previous close. The Nifty 50 index is rising gradually toward the upper band of its past 13 days consolidation range of 23800–24260 points. A decisive close above 24260 points could lead it to 24500–24600 points, Vipin Kumar, AVP Research at Globe Capital Market said. On the other hand, sustained trading below 24000 points would likely drag the index back toward the lower band of the range at 23800 points, he said.

 

"The PCR (put-call ratio) for the current week's expiry stands at 1.34, indicating a short-term bullish bias. Considering its current chart structure and derivatives data, we suggest traders maintain a "buy on dips" approach as long as the Nifty index sustains above 24000 (points)," Kumar said. Analysts expect small- and mid-cap stocks to continue outperforming benchmark indices in the near term, supported by retail investors pumping in significant cash. (Arya S. Biju)

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Equity Alert: Asian mkts up after soft US jobs data dim rate hike prospects

 

MUMBAI--0730 IST--Asian equity indices had a mixed start to Friday's session after softer-than-expected US jobs data eased investors' fears of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. However, the indices gained soon after open, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index leading its Asia-Pacific peers. The US market will be shut on Friday on account of Independence Day.  

 

While South Korea's Kospi bounced back from a slight fall at the open. Stocks of chipmakers there traded higher, with SK Hynix Inc. up 1.5% and Samsung Electronics Co. up over 4%. However, sentimentally, the sharp fall in chipmakers in the US is seen weighing on the regional benchmark index. Meanwhile, Japanese chip stocks were down, with Sumco Corp., Advanta, Renesas Electronics Corp., and Disco Corp. falling 1-2%. Lasertec Corp. fell around 3.5%. However, Japan's Nikkei and Topix were 0.4-07.% higher. 

 

FTSE Singapore Strait Times was up slightly on Friday. The country's central bank is likely to tighten its monetary policy in July, although it could be a close call, Citi Research's Wei Zheng Kit was quoted as saying in a note. Concerns have shifted to core inflation persistently staying above the implicit 1.5-2% target, he said, with sustained food-services price increases a particular concern. Even then, the central bank could maintan status quo as the April tightening likely provided the Monetary Authority of Singapore with some buffer, he said. 

 

The US non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy added 57,000 jobs in June. This was way below an increase of 110,000 jobs predicted by a Reuters poll. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations of 4.3%. Thus, the expectations of a rate hike by the US Fed eased; according to CME FedWatch, they fell to 55% from 64.1% for the September meeting.

 

Following are the levels of key indices in the region at 0732 IST:

 

Index	Level	Change in %
CSI 300 Index	4837.07	0.51
Hang Seng Index	23397.81	1.50
Nikkei 225 Day	68992.66	0.4
TOPIX FIRST SECTION	4039.93	0.60
KOSPI	7796.14	1.94
FTSE Singapore Strait Times	5222.52	0.10
S&P/ASX 200 Index	8823.30	1.13

 

(Gopika Balasubramanium)

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Equity Alert: Dow hits record high; soft US jobs data allays rate hike fears

MUMBAI--0702 IST--While the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another record high on Thursday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed lower as stocks of chipmakers saw a sharp drop, ahead of the long holiday weekend. The softer-than-expected US jobs data allayed worries about a hike in interest rate by the US Federal Reserve. The US market will be closed on Friday in observance of the US Independence Day.

 

The US non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy added 57,000 jobs in June. This was far below a rise of 110,000 jobs expected by economists polled by Reuters. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations of 4.3%. Thus, the expectations of a rate hike by the US Fed eased; according to CME FedWatch, they fell to 55% from 64.1% for the September meeting.

 

"As we are learning how the Fed reaction function will form under [Fed Chairman Kevin] Warsh, this print takes some of the pressure off of the inflation fighting institution to hike near term," Bradford Smith, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investor, told CNBC. "With oil price inflation moderating, some softness on the jobs front likely keeps the Fed on hold at least for the next meeting."

 

Among stocks, Tesla's shares dropped 7.5% even though the electric carmaker reported better-than-expected second-quarter deliveries, Reuters reported. Tesla's shares had risen sharply this week ahead of the data. Bending Spoons dropped 11.3%, a day after the Vimeo owner gained 40% in its listing on the Nasdaq. The index measuring semiconductor stocks, Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index, ended 5.4% lower, falling sharply for a second day. Shares of Nvidia fell 1.4% while SanDisk dropped 14.1%. 

 

Following were the closing levels of major US indices on Thursday:

 

US indices	Levels	Change in %
Dow Jones Industrial Average	52900.00	1.14
NASDAQ Composite	25832.67	(-)0.80
S&P 500	7483.24	0.01

 

(Gopika Balasubramanium)

 

US$1 = INR 95.39

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

All prices from National Stock Exchange, unless otherwise specified.

All percentage changes for share prices are rounded off to the nearest whole number; percentage changes for index values are rounded off to one decimal place.

All times are Indian Standard Time.

 

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