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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 2, 2026

 

By Ashutosh Pati

 

MUMBAI – Crude oil prices are expected to fall further in July as market participants remain optimistic about recovery of supply from West Asia, with some even expecting a glut to return towards the end of 2026. Oil prices may even fall below $60 per barrel this month, a level last seen in January, analysts said.

 

As per the median of estimates from nine broking firms polled by Informist, the July crude oil contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is seen at INR 6,100-INR 7,000 per barrel this month. The August contract of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange is expected to trade between $63.0 and $75.5 per barrel this month.

 

The gradual resumption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz has led to a heavy sell-off in crude oil in recent days. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $67.04 per barrel while Brent crude oil declined to $70.14 per barrel Thursday, both at the lowest level since the war in West Asia began in late February. The fall in prices has been exacerbated by rising production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the US' licence to Iran to sell oil in the global market.

 

At 1806 IST, the most-active August WTI crude oil on the NYMEX traded nearly 2% lower at $67.25 per barrel. The July crude oil contract on the domestic bourse was 1.3% lower at INR 6,443 per barrel.

 

If prices hold around INR 6,300 per barrel on the domestic bourse, some short-covering may be there, said Deveya Gaglani, senior research analyst commodities at Axis Securities. Gaglani recommended investors to "sell-on-rise."

 

The global oil market was in a surplus before the war started. With OPEC and its allies increasing production and Russian and Iranian oil in the market, it won't be surprising if oil prices fall below $60 per barrel, said Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency research at Kotak Securities. Banerjee added that the "only thing that matters" is trade through the strait of Hormuz or the whole equation will flip.

 

Fresh strikes in the region are unlikely to lead to any material rise in crude oil prices except a temporary bounce, analysts said. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again will see oil prices spiking to $75-$80 per barrel or even beyond.

 

Talks between the US and Iran concluded Tuesday with progress made. Qatar reported "positive progress" as the US and Iran concluded indirect technical talks in Doha on issues related to the memorandum of understanding signed on Jun. 17, Al Jazeera reported. Iran said a "communication channel" would be established with the US to report and discuss breaches of the memorandum, the report said.

 

While the current truce in West Asia remains fragile, the market appears to have largely discounted the immediate risk of further escalation, domestic brokerage Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd., said in a note.

 

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the past few weeks, with American military support helping boost oil flows to more than 10 million barrels per day, Bloomberg reported, quoting a US official.

 

Market sentiment was further hurt after the US Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report showed drawdowns were lower than expected. US crude oil inventories, excluding those in the strategic petroleum reserves, fell 3.8 million barrels to 408.4 million barrels in the week ended Friday.

 

Even though crude oil production in the US, the largest producer, fell slightly in the week ended Friday, it still hovered close to record highs. "The surge in US oil exports has helped the market offset some of the supply losses from the Persian Gulf," analysts at ING Economics said in a note. The oil market finished the second quarter of the year weak, with Brent crude down a little over 38%, the weakest quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2020 when the COVID crisis slammed demand, the ING analysts said.

 

"The market is currently showing clear signs of being over-supplied," Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research said. "While the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains at its lowest level since May 1983—approximately 325.7 million barrels--this is providing only a psychological floor for prices," the brokerage said.

 

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency had said last month the global oil market will move into a significant supply surplus towards the end of the year. Market participants will closely watch if OPEC and its allies raise production again at their meeting on Sunday. Seven member countries of the organisation agreed to implement a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day of crude oil in July from the 1.65 million barrels per day of additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase, with the magnitude of the rise same as that implemented for June.

 

Following is a summary of the poll by Informist on crude oil prices for July and details of the estimates by respondents:

 

Brokerage	MCX support (in INR)	MCX resistance (in INR)	NYMEX WTI support ($)	NYMEX WTI resistance ($)
Axis Securities	6,000	6,950	62.0	73.0
IndusInd Securities	6,000	6,800	65.0	76.0
Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research	6,000	7,150	62.0	75.0
Kotak Securities	6,100	7,000	61.0	76.0
LKP Securities	6,200	6,700	65.0	69.0
Motilal Oswal Financial Services	6,150	7,400	--	--
Nirmal Bang Securities	6,000	6,900	64.0	73.5
Prithvi Finmart	6,200	7,100	60.0	76.0
Ventura Securities	6,650	7,600	70.0	80.0
Median	6,100	7,000	63.0	75.5

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.39

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

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