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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices may continue to consolidate in the upcoming sessions as markets await fresh triggers before any major directional move, analysts said. The Nifty 50 index has been moving in a broad range of 23800–24200 points for more than two weeks now, a breakout on either side of this range is seen setting the next directional trend for the index, according to technical analysts. Market participants will monitor progress in the US-Iran negotiations and June business updates by companies which are likely to drive stock-specific moves, according to analysts. 

 

"The Nifty holding the 23800-24200 band for two weeks is a market that has priced the visible catalysts and is waiting for a new one," Harshal Dasani, business head at INVasset PMS, said. "The near-term is more likely to be another two-to-three weeks of the same range unless one of three triggers arrives--the Q1 FY27 earnings season delivering a positive surprise on management commentary, the RBI MPC (Reserve Bank of India's monitory policy committee) leaning more dovish than the current curve implies, or crude sliding below $70 (per barrel) sustainably." Meanwhile, further escalation in the West Asia war and constraint on transit through Strait of Hormuz or the weakness in IT spreading into other export-heavy sectors may drive the Nifty 50 index below 23800 points, Dasani said.

 

After inching up in early trade Wednesday, the September Brent crude futures contract was down over 1% at $72.19 per barrel at 1747 IST. In the latest development, the US and Iranian officials are holding indirect, low-level technical talks through Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Doha, CNN reported, citing a diplomatic source. Separately, Iranian officials were set to meet Qatari mediators on Wednesday to discuss the US-Iran interim peace agreement and the frozen assets. This comes after the Qatari prime minister met with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner Tuesday to discuss ongoing US-Iran talks and regional developments, CNN reported. In an interview released Tuesday, US Vice President J.D. Vance noted that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz had returned to pre-war levels, even exceeding that on some days, without citing figures. 

 

Going forward, lower crude prices, a largely stable domestic currency and tampering off of selling by foreign institutional investors are seen limiting the downside for the indices, while geopolitical developments may keep risk appetite in check, analysts said. "While near-term sentiment remains constructive, markets are likely to stay data-dependent, with investors balancing improving domestic fundamentals against evolving global macroeconomic and geopolitical developments," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note. 

 

Sectors such as aviation and hospitality are expected to remain in focus as lower aviation turbine fuel prices and reduction in commercial 19-kilogram liquefied petroleum gas prices are expected to ease operating cost pressures, while the government's withdrawal of temporary restrictions on fuel sales to commercial buyers signals normalisation of domestic supply conditions, Siddhartha Khemka, head of research-wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in a note. Further, financial stocks are also likely to remain in focus after the RBI's financial stability report reaffirmed the resilience of the banking system, projecting banks' gross non-performing asset ratio to remain below 2%, at 1.9% by March 2028 under the baseline scenario, he added. 

Thursday, the Nifty 50 index may find immediate support at 23900 points and resistance at 24080 points, Rajesh Palviya, head of technical research at Axis Securities said. Wednesday, the Nifty 50 index settled at 24005.85, up 140.10 points or 0.6%. The BSE Sensex closed at 76922.64, up 443.97 points or 0.6%.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.2475

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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