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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 30, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices may continue to consolidate in the coming sessions amid persisting geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia. While lower crude oil prices, largely stable domestic currency, and tampering off of foreign fund outflows are seen supporting the positive sentiment, concerns over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire and delayed southwest monsoon, coupled with expectations of a weak June quarter earnings are seen keeping investor sentiment cautious in the near term, according to analysts.  

 

The US and Iran have been sending conflicting signals about the status of their negotiations scheduled to be held in Qatar Tuesday, after recent hostilities threatened the fragile peace agreement between the two. US President Donald Trump Monday claimed that American negotiators will hold talks with Iran in Doha on Tuesday, after days of tit-for-tat attacks over the weekend, but Iran denied any planned meeting with the US.

 

In the latest development, Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesman Tuesday said that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have arrived in the country, but will not engage in direct meetings with Iranian officials, AlJazeera reported. The spokesperson also said that the issue of frozen Iranian funds is directly linked to the progress of negotiations between Iran and the US. He added that the $6 billion frozen Iranian assets have not yet been transferred to Tehran. 

 

Further, there are concerns that the risk of Israeli attacks on Lebanon would further impact the durability of US-Iran pact. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tuesday reiterated Iran's stance on the war in Lebanon, stating that the US's commitment to ending the war on all fronts, especially in Lebanon, is important in line with the memorandum of understanding. "The (US-Iran interim) treaty is not going to happen and the war will continue until Israel meets all its objectives," Vinit Bolinjkar, head of equity research at Ventura Securities, noted. 

 

"So there will be a lot of confusion in the market regarding this. And that is going to be one of the primary factors" driving the market direction in the near term, Bolinjkar added. Further, market participants will now watch out for interest rate hike trajectories in markets like Japan and the US, which could lead to investors pulling out money from emerging markets like India.  

 

While the below average monsoon is a concern, some analysts believe that it is too early to assess whether the monsoon is deficient or not. "while monsoons are a concern,...we have to understand that there is a slight shift in the monsoon patterns in the country...if you see the last 4-5 years, we have seen the onset of delayed monsoons...So right now, it is too early to assess whether the monsoon has failed or not," Bolinjkar said. Further, he noted that the prediction of southwest monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-term average, "is not going to be materially that negative."

 

Tuesday, the Nifty 50 settled at 23865.75, down 80.50 points or 0.3%. The BSE Sensex closed at 76478.67, down 249.70 points or 0.3%. "We continue to maintain a cautious stance and await a decisive breakout from the defined range, either below the 23800–23750 support zone or above the 24150–24200 resistance band," Hitesh Rathi, technical analyst at Angel One, said. "Until prices continue to oscillate within this range, we do not expect any meaningful expansion in momentum on the index front." Market participants should continue to adopt a stock-specific approach, with selective pockets of strength emerging in sectors such as pharma, non-banking finance companies, and realty, he added.  

 

Going forward, water management companies are expected to remain in focus following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between India and Saudi Arabia to strengthen cooperation in water resource management, supporting long-term opportunities in sustainable water infrastructure and irrigation, Siddhartha Khemka, head of research-wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a note. Automobile stocks will also be in focus with companies announcing their June monthly sales data.  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.6600

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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