More Stories

Informist, Monday, Jun. 29, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – The benchmark equity indices are expected to consolidate in the coming session as investors monitor the US-Iran negotiations scheduled for Tuesday in Qatar to resolve tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and ensure safe navigation through the critical waterway. Analysts are, however, divided on the market's direction, with some expecting bearish sentiment to continue until further clarity on the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire and amid growing concern about the below-average southwest monsoon while others expect a positive trend to continue amid lower crude oil prices.

 

Analysts also expect higher volatility on the expiry day of the Nifty 50's monthly derivatives contract. Monday, the Nifty 50 settled at 23946.25, down 109.75 points or 0.5%. The "index has formed a small bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling consolidation with corrective bias around 24000 levels," Bajaj Broking Research said in a report. In Tuesday's monthly expiry session, the 50-stock index is seen facing immediate resistance at 24100-24150 levels and getting immediate support at 23900–23800 points, the brokerage said. 

 

In the latest development, the US and Iran have agreed to suspend military operations and resume high-level talks in Qatar Tuesday to preserve their fragile peace agreement after days of escalating military strikes pushed the deal to the brink, Axios reported, citing a senior US official. Until there is greater clarity on the durability of the ceasefire, geopolitical developments are expected to remain a key driver of market sentiment globally, Siddhartha Khemka, head of research, wealth management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a note.

Going forward, the downside for the headline indices is seen limited despite concerns over a deficient southwest monsoon, Himanshu Pravinchandra Pandya, a Securities and Exchange Board of India-registered investment adviser and founder of HP Private Wealth Advisory Services, said. "Bad monsoon is not good news, but this does not mean that bad monsoon is good enough to cause a collapse," he remarked.

 

During Jun. 1-28, the country received 85.2 millimetres of rainfall, 43?low the normal for the period, according to data from the India Meteorological Department. If the monsoon revives and compensates for the deficit in the coming weeks, analysts expect the domestic equity market to respond positively.

 

The relentless selling of domestic equities by foreign portfolio investors, which has been weighing on the market, is also seen tapering off amid stabilisation of the rupee against the dollar and volatility in the South Korean and Taiwanese markets, forcing investors to sell in those markets and consider India despite its relatively weak earnings. A potential resolution of the US-Iran conflict and revival of the southwest monsoon, coupled with volatility in the South Korean and Taiwanese markets, could turn foreign investors positive on Indian markets, Pandya said. "And you know, after this AI (artificial intelligence) frenzy is behind us, they (FPIs) will look at India very differently... And by that time, India itself will start benefiting from AI," he said. 

 

Moving forward, defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and health care are seen continuing to do well, Pandya said. "Their demand or outlook is far more clear... unlike infrastructure, banking, which are cyclical, FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), which is impacted due to crude prices, I believe health care and pharmaceuticals will continue to be stable, provide a stable ground, and will continue to do well," he said. However, he does not expect a massive rally from here, as these positives are fully factored in, "but they will not collapse either."

 

This week, investors will watch out for key macroeconomic releases, including India's industrial output and eurozone inflation data, followed by the UK's GDP, global Purchasing Managers' Index readings, and US non-farm payrolls report, which will provide further cues to the US Federal Reserve's policy outlook and global risk sentiment, Khemka said.  End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.