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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 25, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are expected to consolidate in the upcoming week, as market participants continue to assess progress in the US-Iran peace talks, and the below average monsoon. While easing crude oil prices and a stable currency are seen supporting the positive momentum in the domestic market, the upside is seen limited on selling at higher levels, analysts said. The domestic equity market will be closed Friday for Muharram. 

 

With crude oil prices falling past pre-war levels, concern about current account deficit and balance-of-payments deficits, which were threatening India's macro stability, have eased, bringing in the biggest relief for the domestic market, said V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. While he expects the positive momentum in the market to continue going forward, the rally will be limited as foreign investors might continue to sell at higher levels and "the valuations are not very comforting, particularly in mid- and small caps." 

 

Now, the biggest concern is the delayed southwest monsoon, which resumed its advance across the country but still remains below average, analysts said. During Jun. 1–24, the country received 70 millimetres of rainfall, 42% below the normal of 119.9 millimetres, according to data from the India Meteorological Department. "it is too early to say that it (monsoon) will be deficient, but so long that the present trends indicate, it will be deficient," Vijayakumar said. The monsoon deficit will likely impact agriculture-related sectors like tractors, fertiliser makers and certain fast-moving consumer goods companies that depend hugely on rural demand, he added. 

 

Further, there are concern about weak earnings in the June quarter, impacted by higher energy and logistics costs amid the West Asia war. "Q1 results will be poor...market has already discounted that. (If) The poor results come, market will not be impacted," Vijayakumar said. An earnings recovery from here would now depend on how the monsoon season pans out, he added. 

 

Meanwhile, Crisil Ratings expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the US–Iran interim peace deal, if enduring, could materially ease profitability pressure on domestic companies for the rest of this fiscal year. If the truce holds and there are no further disruptions, the impact on operating margins will be contained at around 100 basis points compared with the 200 bps impact pencilled earlier, the rating agency said, based on the assessment of 34 sectors exposed to the conflict.

 

In a positive development for India's technology ecosystem, Amazon announced an additional investment of $13 billion in India by 2030, taking its total planned investment commitment in the country to $48 billion. "The investment is expected to strengthen the country's AI and cloud infrastructure capabilities while reinforcing India's attractiveness as a long-term digital investment destination," Siddhartha Khemka, head of research-wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in a note. 

 

Thursday, the Nifty 50 index settled at 24056, up 34.35 points or 0.1%. The BSE Sensex closed at 77100.47, up 109.25 points or 0.1%. Over the week, the indices lost 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Next week, the 50-stock index is seen finding support at 23900–23800 points and resistance at 24200–24500 points, according to technical analysts.

 

"The near-term trend of Nifty remains positive amidst broader range movement," Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities, said in a note. Having failed to surpass the crucial resistance of 24200 points, one may expect the index to see further consolidation or minor dip by next week, he added.  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.3950

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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