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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 24, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Domestic benchmark indices may extend gains Thursday, rising for a second straight session, supported by lower crude oil prices, the progress in US-Iran peace talks, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a stable currency, and optimism around finalisation of the India-US trade agreement. Additionally, the southwest monsoon resumed its advance across the country, boosting investor sentiment, analysts said.  

 

On Wednesday, the August Brent crude futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange fell more than 2% intraday to $75.37 per barrel, its lowest level since the war in West Asia began. Crude oil prices fell amid signs that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming, with international authorities reporting improved safety. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly one-third of their normal level so far in June, with confirmed flows reaching around 4.8 million barrels a day following the US-Iran interim peace deal, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Yui Torikata, market analyst at Kpler. However, shipping conditions are yet to fully normalise, with a substantial volume of non-Iranian cargoes still transiting the waterway in the dark despite easing tensions, the report said. 

 

With the recent sharp fall in crude oil prices, concerns over the economic growth outlook have eased, with expectations of earnings recovery in the second half of the current fiscal, even though some impact of the delayed southwest monsoon is expected. "Everybody knows that the inflation data will get skewed because of the crude prices increasing during the war period. But eventually, oil prices come down. Now the falling oil prices will have a rub off effect on inflation, not today, but in the coming months," Rohit Srivastava, founder of Strike Money and Indiacharts, said.  

 

Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Wednesday it is premature to talk about repo rate hikes by the Monetary Policy Committee in the coming months. "Markets are pricing in some rate hikes... if we actually wanted to prepare them (the markets) for this (rate hike in coming months), then we would have changed the stance from neutral to restrictive. But we did not do that," Malhotra told ET Now in an interview.

 

However, the Monetary Policy Committee remains cautious, aware of risks to growth and inflation, with the latter potentially hitting the upper limit of the 2-6% tolerance band. "We are cautious, we will continue hereon to remain data-dependent, and we will take it policy by policy," Malhotra said. He also noted that the current inflation risk due to the hit to crude oil supply is "one-time" and said he was unsure about the second-round impact of inflation. Earlier this month, the RBI raised the outlook for headline inflation in 2026–27 (Apr-Mar) by 50 basis points to 5.1% as risks from uncertainties due to the war in West Asia intensified.

 

Even though the southwest monsoon has resumed its advance across the country, rainfall remains below average. As of Wednesday, the country received 70.0 millimetres of rainfall, 42% below the normal of 119.9 millimetres. "There are concerns that this (poor monsoon) might impact India's growth and corporate profits too, marginally," VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said in a note. 

 

Going forward, investors will closely monitor crude oil prices, the progress of the southwest monsoon, developments in US-Iran negotiations and the finalisation of the India-US trade agreement, Siddhartha Khemka, head of research-wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in a note. Any further progress on geopolitical and trade-related fronts, coupled with stable energy prices and sustained foreign inflows, could provide additional support to domestic equities, he added. 

 

Wednesday, the Nifty 50 index settled at 24021.65, up 197.55 points or 0.8%. The BSE Sensex closed at 76991.22, up 790.54 points or 1%. Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Nifty 50 is placed in the 24140-24170 zone, which coincides with the 100-day exponential moving average, Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, said in a note. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Nifty 50 extending its pullback towards 24300 points, followed by 24450 points in the short term. On the downside, he expects the index to find immediate support in the 23900-23870 points zone. The domestic market is expected to rise higher from here. "I think we should be headed towards 25000 (points)... in 2-3 weeks," Srivastava said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.6650

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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