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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 23, 2026

By Arya S. Biju

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are expected to open largely flat or with minor gains as investors assess the progress in US-Iran peace negotiations. While easing crude oil prices are seen supporting the positive sentiment, expectations of an adverse southwest monsoon continue to be a key concern, as prolonged delay in rains could add to inflationary pressures and affect demand across agriculture-related sectors.

The August futures contract of Brent Crude on the Intercontinental Exchange inched up slightly to $78.2 per barrel early Tuesday amid mixed signals from US-Iran talks and concerns over progress of oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Both US and Iranian officials described the first round of negotiations that concluded on Monday as constructive, though differences remain. US Vice-President J.D. Vance said Iran had agreed to allow international nuclear inspectors into the country, a claim that Tehran subsequently disputed.

Further, there are concerns that the recent surge in oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz may not be sustained, Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing a report by ANZ Research. Iran said that any transit would require mandatory insurance policies, which are currently free but could be charged for down the line, the analysts noted. 

The US Treasury Monday issued a 60-day waiver from sanctions on Iranian oil as part of the interim agreement to end the war in West Asia. The waiver includes the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil till Aug. 21. The announcement came after Vance said talks with senior Iranian officials in Switzerland created a "good foundation for a successful final deal".

"The announcement of opening of Strait of Hormuz and issuance of a temporary 60-day general licence authorising production, delivery and sale of Iranian crude are positive for the tight crude oil markets," Prashant Vashisht, senior vice president, and co-group head corporate sector ratings at ICRA, said in a note. "Iranian crude was historically available with credit period of 60-90 days as against 30 days of other crude producers which was beneficial for refiners due to lower working capital requirements besides which geographical proximity to India would benefit Indian refiners," he added. However, there were concerns that Iran may use the profits from oil sales to rebuild its military, CNBC reported.

Monday, foreign institutional investors turned net sellers once again and sold domestic equities worth over INR 6 billion. Meanwhile, domestic investors were net buyers on Monday after being net sellers of Indian equities in the previous session. They net brought shares worth over INR 10 billion. 

At 0825 IST, the June futures of the GIFT Nifty were at 24111.50,  around 9 points higher than the Nifty 50's previous close of 24102.90. " The broader trend remains positive, as Nifty (50) continues to hold above its recent swing lows, indicating that the bullish market structure is intact," Sundar Kewat, technical and derivatives analyst at Ashika Institutional Equties said. "As long as the index sustains above key support levels, the upward momentum is likely to continue, with the next major resistance placed around 24500, which could be tested in the coming sessions," he added. 

Domestic information technology stocks will be in focus Monday after a sell-off in US tech giants in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell over 1% overnight. While optimism about artificial intelligence has supported Wall Street's recent rally, analysts noted that more investors have been questioning lofty spending on infrastructure expansion by hyperscalers, according to a Reuters report. Major equity indices in Asia were mixed in early trade Tuesday, with Singapore FTSE Singapore Strait Times hitting fresh record highs while South Korea's KOPSI fell over 4% to be the worst hit in the region.  End

US$1 = INR 94.6775

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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