More Stories

Informist, Monday, Jun. 22, 2026

By Arundathi A R

MUMBAI – The domestic equity market is likely to hold a positive bias ahead despite US President Donald Trump's fresh threat to conduct strikes on Iran amid the talks between the two countries going on. The mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, said the warring countries had agreed ‌to a roadmap towards a final deal within 60 days. Most analysts see crude oil as the crucial factor dictating the market direction.

"If crude is rising above $80 a barrel, any further upside move could create pressure on the Indian markets again in the medium-to-short term," said Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities. However, the Nifty 50 index could stay around 24000 level amid the geopolitical uncertainties, but it needs to be seen how long does the index sustain at its crucial resistance of 24000-24250 level, according to Bathini.

At 1618 IST, the Brent crude oil August futures contract was at $79.36, down 15% from its previous close. Over a week, oil prices lost over 9%. However, crude oil prices were almost 9% higher from its pre-war level of $72.87 a barrel. 

Bathini of WealthMills sees the Nifty 50 reaching its pre-war level of above 25000, once crude oil prices ease significantly to around $60 a barrel. On Monday, the Nifty 50 settled 0.4% higher at 24102.90, up 89.80 points. It was over 1000 points short of its pre-war level of 25178.65.

"It is at this level of 25000, only FIIs (foreign institutional investors) can turn positive in India," Bathini said. On Friday, foreign institutional investors and domestic investors reversed their activity. Foreign investors net bought shares worth INR 48.59 billion, while domestic investors net sold shares of INR 11.60 billion.

"Markets to remain rangebound as risks churn from supply to demand amid high valuations," broking firm Nuvama Institutional Equities said in its report. The brokerage sees the easing of supply to help, but demand could slow down. "As tax cut effect fades, El Nino has emerged while incomes/credit multipliers are weak," it said. Undervalued domestic currency is a silver lining, said Nuvama.

According to a statement by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on Saturday, the government was closely monitoring the El Nino condition in India and will take necessary action to help farmers deal with its impact. "The issue of El Nino effect is there. The government is keeping an eye on that," Goyal said at a media briefing in Mumbai. "The chances for now is of a delayed monsoon. However, estimate is that monsoon will pick up and if it crosses 95% from normal monsoon, then the issue will be fine."

Broking firm Kotak Securities sees a compelling entry opportunity for oil and gas stocks with its recent sharp correction. The research firm continues to prefer Oil & Natural Gas Corp. in the sector despite pressure from weaker prices of crude oil and retains a sell rating on Oil India. "We revert to a crude oil price assumption of US$85/bbl (per barrel) (from US$95/bbl) for FY2027E (2026–27 (Apr-Mar), while maintaining US$75/bbl for FY2028/29E and LT (long term)," the brokerage said in its report.

"The broader trend remains positive, as Nifty continues to hold above its recent swing lows, indicating that the bullish market structure is intact," Sundar Kewat, technical and derivatives analyst at Ashika Institutional Equity Research, said. "As long as the index sustains above key support levels, the upward momentum is likely to continue, with the next major resistance placed around 24500 (level), which could be tested in the coming sessions." 

Monday, the domestic currency capped its six-day gaining streak and settled at 94.6775 a dollar. "In the near term, spot USDINR is expected to find firm support around 94.10, with immediate resistance capped at 95.30," Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said in a note.  End

US$1 = INR 94.6775

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.