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Informist, Friday, Jun. 19, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Shares of companies that mine industrial metals are expected to rise next week while stocks of downstream metal companies may remain under pressure. Both these projected movements are based on expectations that prices of underlying commodities will rise. Negotiations between the US and Iran will be the most important factor influencing these prices as they will determine whether the high risk premiums associated with key raw materials are justified, analysts said. 

 

Large risk premiums were built into prices of industrial metals, which resulted in a sharp decline in their prices when the US and Iran signed a deal intending to end the conflict in West Asia. However, fresh strikes by Israel may have left the interim peace deal at the risk of falling apart. Friday, Switzerland said US talks with Iranian negotiators on a pact to end the war in West Asia would not take place Friday, as US Vice-President J.D. Vance cancelled plans to travel to the country, according to media reports.

 

A continuation of the war could lead to coal and aluminium prices rising further, which will benefit miners such as Vedanta Aluminium Metal but be detrimental to steel producers such as Tata Steel. Moreover, even if the war ends, it will take at least 2-3 months for aluminium production to reach pre-war levels after the disruption of smelting operations in West Asia, Manoj Jain, executive director-regulatory at the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, said. He added that he expects aluminium prices to rise more sharply among industrial metals in the coming months. "If the final peace deal is postponed, I see an upside of 5–6% from the current LME (London Metal Exchange) prices (of aluminium)," Jain said.

 

The analyst also sees copper prices rising in case the war in West Asia drags on the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for transit. While copper prices have corrected after US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone and the subsequent rise in the dollar index, they are unlikely to fall below $13000 per tonne, Jain said, citing a strong support zone for the metal. Companies with higher exposure to silver and gold may also see a decline in their stocks due to the dollar strengthening. "The case for buying steel is weak because prices of its key input, coal, haven't showed any signs of easing in the near term," Jain said.

 

This week, the Nifty Metal index ended 1.3% higher at 13020.80 points. The rise was led by Adani Enterprises, APL Apollo Tubes, and Welspun Corp., which rose 2-4%. NMDC, Vedanta, and Steel Authority of India tumbled 2–3% during the week. Technically, the Nifty Metal index looks neither bullish nor particularly bearish, Nandish Shah, senior derivative analyst at HDFC Securities, said. The analyst expects the index to move meaningfully higher only if it is able to close above its immediate resistance at 13150 points.

 

TOP HEADLINES

* Hindustan Zinc appoints Amarendu Prakash as CEO designate of co Fri
* Crosslink Food releases pledge on 2.2 mln shrs of Lloyds Metals to lenders
* Hindalco Ind commissions aluminium bicycle components facility in Pune
* Sarda Energy says transmission tower of co's arm collapsed in heavy rains
* MSCI to remove Vedanta from its standard, large cap indices Monday
* Gravita India gets LME Brand Accreditation for lead metal produced at Mundra
* Kirloskar Ferrous gets international order of $13.51 mln to supply pig iron
* Fall in steel prices a seasonal blip, more downside limited - Kotak Equities
* Demerged entities have potential to become $100-bln cos - Vedanta's Agarwal
* IPO Alert: SEBI approves Bombay Coated's fresh issue of INR 1.9 bln

 

Following are the resistance and support levels for key metal stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

 

Company	Price	Week-on-week  change in %	Resistance	Support
Hindalco Industries	1,010.00	(-)1.10	1,035.60	972.40
Hindustan Copper	511.15	0.20	520.50	496.30
Hindustan Zinc	563.55	0.70	573.20	547.70
Jindal Steel	1,137.70	(-)0.90	1,155.20	1,113.40
JSW Steel	1,287.70	(-)0.80	1,311.20	1,255.40
Jindal Stainless	696.70	0.30	717.30	680.20
National Aluminium Co.	376.00	(-)0.20	386.10	357.40
NMDC	88.42	(-)2.80	89.80	87.40
Steel Authority of India	180.05	(-)2.20	186.30	175.20
Tata Steel	198.96	0.60	201.10	195.40
Vedanta	300.80	(-)2.90	307.10	296.30
Index	Level
Nifty Metal	13020.80	1.30	13177.00	12768.10
Nifty 50	24013.10	1.70	24132.70	23842.10
BSE Sensex	76802.90	1.70	77156.70	76292.80

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.32

 

Reported by Eshitva Prakash

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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