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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 18, 2026

 

By Gunjan Rajput

 

NEW DELHI – The demand-supply mismatch in the generic semaglutide market could correct in the next two to six months as more patients begin to use newly launched products and repeat purchases begin, according to market experts. Supply currently exceeds demand in the generic semaglutide market, which has resulted in inventory build-up barely two months after cheaper versions of the drug entered the market.

 

Semaglutide gained popularity globally after studies showed it could help patients achieve significant weight loss, creating strong demand for the drug beyond its traditional use in treating Type 2 diabetes.

 

With Novo Nordisk's India patent on semaglutide having expired in March, several Indian companies pushed to launch their cheaper generic versions in the market. This led to a sudden increase in supply of the product in the market, and initially, companies benefited from pent-up demand from patients waiting for these cheaper products. However, after this initial rush of patients, demand as moderated, but there is still a sizeable inventory left to be sold.

 

Semaglutide injectable product sales rose to 170,000 units in April from 63,000 units in March, an increase of almost three times. However, growth moderated in May, with unit sales increasing only 12% on month to 190,000 units, suggesting that the market may be moving beyond its initial launch-driven phase, according to Pharmarack data.

 

"The majority of patients who were eligible and waiting for lower-cost semaglutide products may already have been onboarded," Sheetal Sapale, vice-president-commercial at Pharmarack, told Informist.

 

The inventory build-up seen across several semaglutide brands does not necessarily indicate weak demand but reflects a market adjusting after an exceptionally strong launch period, Sapale said. She expects demand and supply to reach an equilibrium in about two months as inventory is likely to be absorbed through regular prescriptions and repeat purchases.

 

Generic semaglutide products are currently priced between INR 1,500 rupees and INR 4,500 rupees, substantially lower than innovator products that can cost between INR 8,000 rupees and INR 15,000 rupees. The cheaper products enabled a large number of patients to enter the semaglutide market who were previously unable to afford the treatment, which resulted in a sharp spike in demand immediately after launch.

The recent moderation in growth should be viewed as a normalisation after an exceptional launch period rather than a sign of structural weakness in demand, Salil Kallianpur, an independent pharmaceutical analyst and former executive vice-president at GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd., told Informist.

 

"The launch likely benefited from significant pent-up demand from patients who had delayed treatment because of innovator pricing, extensive awareness around glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs and stocking by pharmacies and distributors ahead of expected demand," Kallianpur said.

 

Around 60-70% of the initial surge in demand likely came from first-time users of semaglutide, while 30-40?me from patients switching from costlier innovator brands, according to Kallianpur. He said cheaper generics have expanded access to a much larger population of diabetic and obese patients who previously could not afford the treatment. However, after the first wave of eligible patients entered therapy, growth has naturally moderated, he said.

 

"Demand growth is likely transitioning from hyper-growth to steady expansion," Kallianpur said. He expects demand and supply to reach equilibrium within three to six months in major urban markets, while broader national equilibrium could take six to 12 months.

 

Kallianpur estimates India's commercially addressable semaglutide market to be 2-4 million patients over the next one to two years, comprising individuals who are both clinically eligible and financially capable of sustaining long-term treatment. He also said future growth is likely to depend on repeat purchases and refills rather than first-time patients. He also estimates that over the next 12 months, around 55-60% of demand growth could come from repeat purchases and refills, while new patient additions may contribute 40-45%.

 

In addition, treatment discontinuation due to gastrointestinal side effects, affordability concerns, and the need for long-term adherence could moderate growth. Sapale added that future market expansion will depend on physician adoption, patient persistence and the industry's ability to identify and onboard a broader pool of eligible patients.  End

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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