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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 18, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices may rise further Friday, extending gains for the sixth straight session, amid positive sentiment over the interim peace deal signed by the US and Iran to end the near-four month-long war. While there are uncertainties over the details of the deal, lower crude oil prices and a stable currency are seen supporting the positive sentiment around stocks, analysts said.

 

Thursday, the August futures contract of Brent Crude on the Intercontinental Exchange fell as much as 3% to a low of $77.1 per barrel, the lowest since early March when the West Asia war started. Crude oil prices rose as the interim deal, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, eased global energy supply concerns.

 

Going forward, "there is a possibility that crude oil prices will go down from the current level more because now there is a second opinion that OPEC will increase supply again because they have also a lot of pressure regarding the budget," said Ravi Singh, chief research officer at Master Capital Services. "See, now prices, WTI crude is about to $70 to $75 level. But I hope there is more correction till $65 to $62 level," he said. 

 

Market participants now focus on the pace at which traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can recover. "An estimated 100 million barrels of crude and refined products are already loaded on tankers and waiting to leave the Gulf, while regional producers are taking steps to restart shut-in production," Wall Street Journal quoted analysts at Saxo Bank as saying. A full return to normal shipping operations is likely to take months, as vessel operators struggle with logistical and security hurdles including repositioning tankers, rescheduling port calls and securing insurance coverage. 

 

In another development, the US Federal Reserve, late Wednesday, highlighted persistent inflation risks and signalled interest rate hikes later this year, turning global sentiment cautious. "A higher US yield reduces the appeal for Indian debt for global investors and also puts pressure on the INR," Naval Kagalwala, chief operating officer and head of products at Shriram Wealth, said in a note. Further, there are concerns over the impact of El Nino on the country's economy.  

 

However, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, "reducing inflation pressure and broader measures of the labour market pointing to a more mixed picture than implied by recent non-farm payroll reports, we think the Fed will ultimately avoid delivering hikes," according to a note by global wealth management firm, Julius Baer. 

 

Thursday, the Nifty 50 index closed at 24168, up 82.30 points or 0.3% and BSE Sensex settled at 77409.98, up 254.36 points or 0.3%. "The Nifty (50) closed above its previous swing high, indicating an improving sentiment...However, we need to remain cautious as the Nifty (50) has rallied nearly 1,000 points in just six sessions. While this does not necessarily indicate a reversal, a phase of consolidation in the near term looks quite possible before the next directional move," Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said in a note. Friday, the Nifty 50 index is expected to find support at 23800–24000 points and resistance at 24200-24500 points, according to technical analysts.  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.3325

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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