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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 16, 2026

MUMBAI – Crude oil prices fell below $82 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be reopened soon, but there are still continued imbalances in the physical market, which could cause oil prices to move towards and even beyond $90 per barrel in the coming weeks, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. said in a report. The near-term rise in oil prices may primarily be driven by pent-up demand from China and delay in supply normalisation, the broking firm noted. Brent Crude oil futures had risen to as much as $122.53 per barrel this year due to the war in West Asia.

Emkay Global sees crude oil prices correcting in the latter part of 2026–27 (Apr-Mar) and falling to $70 per barrel by the end of this financial year. However, crude oil prices are still likely to average around $90 per barrel for FY27, according to the report. India's balance of payments, meanwhile, is expected to be near-zero or even a minor surplus by the end of FY27 as inflows worth INR 70 billion–INR 75 billion are seen flowing in.

Normalisation of flows through the Strait of Hormuz will likely take weeks, the broking firm said, adding that headwinds from tanker availability, insurance costs, war-risk premiums, and clearance of mines along the strait are expected to persist. "...resumption of production from shuttered oil wells will also require time," Emkay Global said.

Chinese imports of crude oil decreasing to multi-year lows is one of the key reasons oil prices were relatively contained, the brokerage said. As supply through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, China is expected to enter the oil market again, causing demand to inch up. At the same time, US oil will be redirected for domestic use.

Emkay Global projects India's real GDP to expand 6.3% in FY27 and headline inflation to rise 5.1% on year. The country's current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.3% of GDP, according to the report. Further, the hike in retail fuel prices may be partially revoked if crude oil prices remain below $75 per barrel, Emkay Global said. On the currency front, an improvement in India's balance of payments should help the rupee appreciate towards 93 against the dollar by the end of the September quarter.  End

Reported by Ruchira Kagita

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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