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Informist, Monday, Jun. 15, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The Nifty 50 index is likely to reach 27000–28000 levels and the domestic equity market is expected to outperform in the next four to six months, provided India sees a "normal monsoon", Gaurav Bhandari, chief executive officer of Monarch Networth Capital Ltd., said at a webinar Monday. His target for the Nifty 50 indicates returns of 12–17% from current levels.

 

With the US and Iran at the cusp of a peace deal, a further fall in oil prices is likely. This, coupled with measures to attract higher foreign fund inflows into the debt market, will help arrest the rupee's fall, while strong earnings growth in several sectors inspires confidence, Bhandari said.

 

"They (foreign investors) should get comfort that the rupee is not going to be volatile because they were taking hit on both sides... with the recent measures taken by the government, it seems very visible that the fall in the rupee has been arrested," Bhandari said. "We are going to see a very stronger rupee in the coming time...now that the Iran war seems to be coming to an end, the oil prices have corrected, (which) gives a lot of comfort to these investors." High tax on capital gains in the equity market, however, will remain a key bottleneck in improving foreign funds inflow, Bhandari added.

 

He warned that this bullish projection is contingent on a good monsoon season. "The key risk, according to me, more than oil, is the monsoon. I think India is mostly an agrarian economy and our dependence on this segment is significantly higher than the oil sector," he said.

 

He added that inflation in India is "not very high" compared to the rest of the world, where inflationary pressure has been driven by high crude oil prices. Other than low inflation, strong earnings growth of domestic companies, healthy capital expenditure trend, and the historically low leverage of companies support the argument for investing in Indian equities, Bhandari said. "We have seen a strong revenue growth of 11?GR (compounded annual growth rate) in the past three years, which is again reflected in a very strong PAT (profit after tax) generation... more than that, it's the OCF (operating cash flow), (which) stands at the highest level since the past 10 years," he said.

 

Bank stocks will likely lead the recovery in the Nifty 50 index, Bhandari said. The fall in telecommunication stocks is bottoming out, which adds to optimism in the market. Bhandari expects information technology stocks to be re-rated as traders cover short positions built around this sector. 

 

"If you look at bank(s), just to give you a perspective, the banking sector collectively this year generated a profit of INR 1,94,000 crores (1.94 trillion). The NPAs (non-performing assets) are the lowest in the industry in the past decade. The sector is trading at 12 times forward earnings... which country will you get this and a sector which is showing a growth of 10 to 12%," Bhandari said.

 

He is bullish on small-cap and large-cap players, citing the end of correction. "If you follow a bottom-up approach, there is enough money to be made on the table in the coming months," he said. Bhandari said State Bank of India Ltd., HFCL Ltd., and Hindustan Copper Ltd. will likely generate returns of 30–35% in a year, and they are the top picks of his fund. 

"There is a huge unlocking (of value) that we will see in State Bank going forward and the listing of SBI Mutual Funds should be just the start of it," Bhandari said. The bank's management's guidance of 13–15% revenue growth, healthy risk management, and more upside potential means that the stock is a "screaming buy" opportunity. Bhandari added that market concerns around net interest margin compression seem to be overdone, with the management guiding for a NIM above 3%. "What markets are perhaps not factoring in is a strong franchisee value along with the subsidiaries that they (SBI) have," Bhandari said.

Bhandari is bullish on HFCL Ltd. as the company has booked 50% of its total capacity and has significantly higher margins for the next three years. Its entry into the defence segment is also a key positive, since it is expected to get huge orders. "My expectation is, as per the guidance given by the management, they should be doing a PAT (profit after tax) of 1000 crores (INR 10 billion) this year, Bhandari said. His fund sees a 20–25?GR growth in the earnings for the next two years.

 

Lastly, the fund managed by Monarch Networth is also bullish on Hindustan Copper, owing to its healthy vertical integration and strong control over copper production. The company's profitability rose significantly because of the higher realisation on copper, whose prices have surged due to higher demand by data centres and affiliated industries, Bhandari noted. "Data centres will need a lot of copper and hence... they (Hindustan Copper) are going to enhance their capacity every passing year and the margin of safety again in this looks very high compared to any other metal sector," he said.  End

 

Reported by Eshitva Prakash and Anshul Choudhary

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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